Tag
prediction markets
31 articles
Republicans Hold 52% Edge in 2026 Senate Fight, Kalshi Markets Show
Prediction market data gives Republicans a narrow advantage in defending their Senate majority, with the chamber remaining highly competitive heading into the fall campaign.
Prediction Markets Favor Democrats to Take House With Two Months Left
Kalshi's prediction exchange prices Democrats at 85% to win control after trading 22.3 million contracts on House control
Prediction Market Prices Trump Impeachment at 66 Percent
A Kalshi contract on House impeachment has drawn $2.76 million in trading and more than doubled since November 2025, as Democratic odds of retaking the House improve.
Gemini Locks Apex Partnership to Reach Tens of Millions Through Brokerages
Gemini Titan will be the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts routed through Apex's futures infrastructure to brokerage clients, bypassing direct-to-consumer channels.
Gemini Titan Becomes Exclusive Crypto Event Contract Venue for Apex's Retail Brokerage Network
Gemini's CFTC-regulated subsidiary will execute and clear prediction market bets routed through Apex's futures commission merchant to hundreds of brokerages serving tens of millions of retail investors.
CLARITY Act Shows 10% Passage Odds as Political Headwinds Mount
Prediction markets price the crypto regulatory bill at just 21 percent odds of enactment by year-end, down from 50 percent a month ago, as Senate schedule and competing interests collide.
JPMorgan Dropped Polymarket's Bank Account, Now Eyes Its $20B IPO
The bank told Polymarket in Oct. 2025 to find a new lender over regulatory concerns, then kept other ties open as the prediction platform targets a $1 billion funding round.
SKALE Labs Launches Agent Pit Sandbox for AI Prediction Market Strategy Testing
The gas-free network replicates Polymarket's order book and settlement mechanics, letting developers stress-test autonomous trading agents before deploying live capital.
NFL Season Nears, Betting Industry Prepares for 'Arms Race'
Sports betting and prediction market platforms saw record activity during the World Cup, but executives expect fierce competition as the NFL season begins.
Wintermute USA Registers as Broker-Dealer, Takes Aim at Wall Street Giants
The crypto-native market maker now operates under FINRA and SEC oversight, positioning itself for designated market-maker status on major U.S. exchanges.
Vance and Rubio Lead 2028 Prediction Markets at 18 Percent Each
Kalshi data gives Vice President JD Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio an 18 percent shot at the presidency, with Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff leading a thin Democratic field.
Binance.US Applies for CFTC Derivatives License, Eyes Prediction Markets and Perpetuals
The exchange's CEO confirms plans to enter prediction markets and perpetual futures, targeting regulated crypto derivatives for U.S. clients.
White House Aide Quits After Betting on Trump Speeches Using Inside Access
Senior policy advisor Marcus Thorne resigned from the National Economic Council after an internal ethics review found he used prediction markets tied to administration announcements.
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Proposes $30.4M HYPE Stake for Permissionless Prediction Markets
The HIP-4 proposal mandates a 500,000 HYPE token lock for six months, with slashing provisions for ambiguous or unresolved markets
Bitcoin Falls 2.5% to $75,315 as Institutions Diversify Into AI, Prediction Markets
Capital flows show institutional investors moving beyond core Bitcoin positions to explore high-growth sectors in decentralized AI and blockchain prediction platforms
Ethereum Prediction Markets Price 56% Chance Below $2,000 This Month
Traders assign majority probability to Ethereum falling below $2,000 before May's close, marking a shift in sentiment for the second-largest crypto asset
Prediction Market ETFs See Path Ahead as On-Chain Volume Hits $5M Daily
ETF analyst Nate Geraci expects new funds targeting decentralized prediction markets, signaling further crypto market financialization
Scott Melker Warns Prediction Market Speculation Shows Market Downturn
Veteran trader Scott Melker cautioned at Consensus 2026 that speculation in prediction markets historically signals coming corrections
Prediction Markets Surge Past $150 Billion as Kalshi Dominates April Volume
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi collectively processed over $150 billion in lifetime trading volume, with Kalshi setting a new monthly record in April.
1. A16z Enters Regulatory Fray, Backs CFTC on Prediction Markets as Crypto Fear Persists
Prominent venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz has sided with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in a critical legal battle against states aiming to prohibit decentralized prediction markets, signaling a major fight for crypto's regulatory future.
Prediction Markets Shake Off 'Casino' Label, Become Critical News Oracle
On-chain data confirms prediction markets are evolving into a serious information aggregation layer, offering investors a real-time pulse on global events and challenging traditional news paradigms.
Prediction Markets Mature: Polymarket, Kalshi $150 Billion Volume Signals Growing Institutional
The cumulative trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi reaching $150 billion in April underscores the accelerating legitimization of prediction markets as a robust, alternative asset class attracting significant capital.
Prediction Market Crackdown Signals Regulatory Shift: Cybersecurity Stocks Poised for Gains
The arrest of a U.S. soldier for insider trading on Polymarket marks a new era of government enforcement, pushing investors towards robust, regulated technology and cybersecurity firms.
Washington Targets Prediction Markets: Here’s Who Wins and Who Loses
Federal regulators are escalating their campaign against decentralized prediction markets, signaling a significant shift in Washington's approach to novel crypto applications and reasserting control over a speculative corner of finance.
State Prediction Market Bans Signal Regulatory Tightening on Decentralized Finance
New York and Illinois' prohibitions on government employees using prediction markets for insider trading underscore growing regulatory scrutiny that could reshape the operational landscape for decentralized finance protocols and their speculative instruments.
Prediction Markets Overprice Event Risk: Polymarket Bot Exposes Systemic Bias
A continuously profitable bot on Polymarket, consistently betting against major news events, reveals a deep-seated behavioral bias in how decentralized prediction markets price tail risk.
Kalshi CEO Anticipates Federal Crackdown on Prediction Market 'Bad Actors'
The CEO of regulated prediction market Kalshi expects federal agencies to target illicit activities within the burgeoning sector, signaling a new front in Washington's regulatory push.
Nevada Bans Kalshi: Regulatory Net Tightens on Prediction Markets
A Nevada court ruling classifying Kalshi's sports contracts as gambling establishes a critical precedent, signaling increased regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets and potentially impacting broader crypto derivatives.
JPMorgan's Prediction Market Pivot: Dimon Eyes DeFi, BTC $68,153
Jamie Dimon, a long-time crypto skeptic, now admits JPMorgan is exploring prediction market offerings, signaling a profound institutional shift towards blockchain-powered decentralized finance and validating the sector's long-term utility as Bitcoin consolidates above $68,000.
CFTC Targets Prediction Markets; Bitcoin Holds $68,626
The CFTC's enforcement director issues a stark warning, confirming insider trading laws extend to decentralized prediction markets, signaling aggressive enforcement as crypto markets show resilience.
Kalshi's $50M DC Push Eyes Sports Prediction Market
Kalshi's intensifying lobbying push in Washington, D.C., seeks to unlock a regulated prediction market for sports outcomes, potentially redefining athlete valuations and league revenue streams across a multi-billion dollar vertical.