The CLARITY Act, a centerpiece of U.S. crypto regulatory efforts, faces a 10 percent probability of passage before the midterm elections, according to Miller Whitehouse-Levine, CEO of the Solana Policy Institute. Prediction markets have already priced in the deteriorating odds: 21 percent odds of enactment by year-end, with more than $7 million in trading volume. Kalshi's probability has fallen to 23 percent—a 54 percent decline from 50 percent less than a month ago.
Whitehouse-Levine attributed the collapse to legislative calendar scarcity and political fragmentation during his remarks at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026. He described the bill's current state as "August recess purgatory," noting that "as time runs out in this Congress, getting the bill passed becomes increasingly difficult." The motion to proceed is merely the opening procedural step; substantial votes remain before final passage.
This marks at least the sixth legislative attempt to establish clear U.S. market structure rules for digital assets. Prior efforts faced similar gridlock: conflicting regulatory philosophies between financial regulators, traditional banking interests, and securities firms have repeatedly stalled consensus.
The current dynamic has intensified. New stakeholders—including the President's office, traditional financial institutions, and securities firms—have become more actively engaged in negotiations, transforming the legislative terrain into what Whitehouse-Levine called a "battleground." He noted: "You have all these new interests that have woken up to the fact that, oh no, the Clarity Act could move, we better get our act together."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune pledged a floor vote before the August recess, which materialized on Aug. 8. The successful motion to proceed, however, does not signal passage. Each remaining stage requires additional floor time and supermajority support—luxuries the Senate lacks before recess and the midterm calendar.
Whitehouse-Levine expressed a measured outlook: "hopeful, but realistic about its probabilities." He underscored the urgency of regulatory clarity, stating the industry "can't afford to keep waiting for Congress."
