WASHINGTON — The Polymarket account known as "Dicedicedice" has returned to making wagers after more than six months of inactivity. The account gained $119,964, representing a 400 percent return, from a single bet placed hours before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.
The bet was part of a controversy involving six newly created Polymarket wallets that collectively won $1,165,506.25 from predicting the timing of the strikes. These accounts, including "Dicedicedice," were funded and placed their winning wagers on a Feb. 28 attack the day before it occurred, according to analysis by visual analytics platform Bubblemaps SA.
Polymarket makes all data regarding its users and bets publicly available on-chain. A review of the six accounts mentioned by Bubblemaps confirmed none had a history of gambling activity prior to these bets on the U.S.-Iran strikes.
Rumors circulated online following the strikes, suggesting the timing of these bets pointed to insider knowledge from the administration of President Donald Trump. One post on X claimed federal officials or military personnel were making millions on geopolitical events, calling it "legalized insider trading with a blockchain wrap. "
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut publicly shared the claim on X, saying "it's insane this is legal" and pledging to introduce legislation to outlaw such practices. This incident echoed a prior controversy in Jan. 2026, where a trader allegedly close to the Trump administration profited $400,000 from bets related to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Snopes investigated the claims regarding the U.S.-Iran strikes and confirmed the winnings and the newness of the accounts. However, Snopes could not confirm that the individuals behind these accounts received insider knowledge directly from or by being close to the Trump administration. The White House and the Department of Defense were contacted for comment regarding these claims.
Other Polymarket users, including "Planktonbet," "Neodbs," and "nothingeverhappens911," also placed bets within 24 hours of the U.S.-Iran strike. The account "Neodbs" earned $98,837.50 from a bet placed two days before the attack. All these accounts were opened in Feb. 2026 and exclusively placed wagers on the Iran strike event.
The return of "Dicedicedice" to prediction market activity after a break highlights the tension between the transparency of on-chain betting and ethical concerns surrounding potential insider information in geopolitical markets. Prediction markets like Polymarket operate on smart contracts, enabling users to speculate on future events with tokenized outcomes. The public nature of these transactions, while allowing for scrutiny, also exposes the mechanics of these controversial trades.
Lawmakers have expressed concerns about profiteering from war and the potential for insider trading on prediction platforms. The GENIUS Act, which sets the federal framework for payment stablecoin issuers, does not directly address the regulatory gray area of prediction markets operating with speculative tokens on geopolitical events. Clear federal guidance defining the legal boundaries for such platforms remains a subject of debate in Washington.
