Kalshi, a financial exchange, launched a Midterms Hub on Wednesday offering live election forecasting by combining prediction market odds, traditional polling, fundraising figures, news and historical election results.
The platform updates around the clock as news breaks, debates occur and new polls emerge. Kalshi's pitch: real money committed by real traders is a better predictor than partisan spin. "Prediction markets do not account for political spin or partisanship," CEO Tarek Mansour said at a Washington launch event. "They instead reveal what the collective wisdom of crowds believes, based on actual money rather than rhetoric."
For the Senate, Kalshi's forecast shows Republicans with a 56 percent chance to retain control. Democrats are favored to control 49 seats—34 not up for re-election, 10 rated "Solid D," two "Likely D" and two "Lean D." Republicans are favored to control 48 seats: 31 not up for re-election, 11 "Solid R," four "Likely R" and two "Lean R." Three races remain toss-ups.
For the House, Democrats had an 86 percent chance of winning on April 11, 2026, their highest to date. The current forecast shows Democrats with an 83 percent chance. The platform includes a timeline slider tracking how forecasts have shifted over time.
Kalshi data shows about 75 percent of platform visitors check the election odds, while 25 percent place trades. The company described the hub as a leading indicator for election outcomes.
The launch event featured a panel with Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, Rob Flaherty, who served as Assistant to President Biden and White House Director of Digital Strategy, and Mansour. Stephanie Cutter, Managing Partner of Precision Strategies, moderated.
