A Kalshi prediction market contract for the U.S. Treasury to complete a Bitcoin purchase before January 1, 2028, recently touched 21 percent. The contract resolves only upon an official Treasury announcement of a completed Bitcoin acquisition for a government-held reserve, excluding speeches, studies or executive orders.
The contract saw minimal financial backing, with total volume standing at just $1,617. Approximately 309 contracts traded on the 2028 deadline, according to Kalshi's internal data. By Monday morning, the contract's last trade had slipped to 11 percent, with bids at 12 cents and offers at 17 cents.
For comparison, a shorter-term contract covering the remainder of 2026 showed a 2 percent probability. The thin nature of this market means a single motivated trader can significantly influence the reported odds.
A much deeper Kalshi market on President Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve before January 1, 2027, has recorded close to 200,000 contracts and trades near 3.5 percent. The contrast highlights the relative lack of capital backing the Treasury purchase contract.
The case for a Treasury Bitcoin purchase relies on rhetoric rather than established mechanisms. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the House Armed Services Committee in April he is an enthusiast of "Bitcoin and crypto potential," noting related Pentagon work is classified.
But the executive order establishing the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve explicitly bars open-market purchases. The BITCOIN Act, which would mandate Treasury acquisitions, has not been enacted. Without new legislation or a budget-neutral workaround, the Treasury lacks a clear path to execute a completed Bitcoin purchase as defined by the Kalshi contract's resolution criteria.
Broader crypto prediction markets are seeing record activity. Kalshi and Polymarket collectively logged $2.7 billion in weekly volume for crypto contracts, predominantly driven by Bitcoin bets.
This surge coincided with recent Bitcoin price movements. The asset slid to $79,146 over the weekend. The "below $80,000" contract is effectively settled after last week's drop. The "below $77,500" contract trades near 44 percent on over 117,000 contracts, while the "below $75,000" contract sits near 16 percent.
