Traders on Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market, put the probability of President Donald Trump being impeached before Jan. 1, 2028 at 66.6 percent as of late April 2026. The contract has drawn more than $2.76 million in total trading volume.
The contract opened near 30 percent in November 2025, climbed steadily through the winter, peaked above 70 percent in March 2026, then pulled back slightly to its current level.
The mechanics matter: it resolves "Yes" only if the U.S. House of Representatives passes articles of impeachment, verified through congress.gov. Senate conviction or removal from office is not required. A House vote alone, even without removal, settles the contract in favor of those holding "Yes" positions.
A separate Kalshi market on full removal — requiring either a two-thirds Senate vote or invocation of the 25th Amendment — trades far lower, at roughly 27 percent. The gap reflects traders' assessment that House passage is more probable than the Senate supermajority needed to actually remove a sitting president.
The rise in impeachment odds tracks closely with prediction markets on the 2026 midterm elections. Separate Kalshi contracts give Democrats roughly a 71 percent chance of retaking the House in November. A Democratic majority would hold the procedural power to initiate impeachment proceedings — the same dynamic that produced two House impeachment votes during Trump's first term.
Trump was impeached by the House twice in his first term: in December 2019 over the Ukraine pressure campaign and in January 2021 following the Capitol riot. The Senate acquitted him both times.
Geopolitical developments have added pressure. Trump's public statements on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz prompted calls from Democratic lawmakers for impeachment proceedings or invocation of the 25th Amendment. As of April 22, 2026, no impeachment articles have been introduced in the House.
Prediction markets carry real limitations. Kalshi contracts aggregate trader expectations and capital, but they are not polls and do not directly measure congressional vote counts or legislative intent. The 2016 presidential election stands as the clearest recent example of prediction markets mispricing an outcome at scale — markets assigned Hillary Clinton a decisive probability of winning days before the election.
No formal impeachment proceedings are underway. House Republicans, who currently hold the majority, have shown no appetite for such a process. The midterm results in November will determine whether Democrats gain the majority needed to act.
