bond market

Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.

Core inflation held at 2.5 percent while employers shed 23,000 jobs and real wages fell 0.2 percent, shifting Fed rate expectations toward a September pause.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.

Economists project a 0.1 percent monthly CPI gain for July and 3.4 percent year-over-year, enough to keep the short end of the yield curve on edge.

The private credit firm tapped debt markets following redemption limits imposed on one of its funds earlier this year.

The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.

International Business Machines Corp. is offering four- and eight-year Canadian dollar notes, its first such issuance since 2012, as foreign firms drive record Maple note volume.

Economists forecast a second straight quarter of expansion driven by services and manufacturing stockpiling, though June activity is expected to have slipped.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed issuance sizes for coupon and floating-rate notes will remain unchanged for several quarters, rebuffing Wall Street calls for more long-dated supply.

Italy surpassed Germany and France in July LNG intake, with state subsidies and guarantees allowing utilities to absorb spot prices above $12 per million BTU.

Chile returns to external financing weeks after congressional approval of a higher borrowing limit, signaling persistent fiscal demand and a push to secure capital.

Bond markets are repricing a 25-basis-point hike at the July 31 Fed meeting after a sharp jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns across duration-sensitive portfolios.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.

The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.

Declining transit volume through the world's most critical oil chokepoint is tightening supply expectations and lifting inflation risk premiums across rates markets.

The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 4.00 percent for a second straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde leaving the door open to additional tightening.

Producer prices ran at more than double the consensus forecast in June, slashing September rate-cut odds to 35 percent and steepening the market's higher-for-longer repricing.

A sustained 5 percent 10-year Treasury yield raises the cost of capital for speculative AI companies, echoing past rate cycles that crippled highly leveraged sectors.

President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee immediately shifts market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance

Netherlands' high-output, shorter-hours workforce reduces unit labor costs and inflation pressure, influencing European Central Bank policy decisions

High-growth technology shares face pressure as rising Treasury yields increase discount rates for future earnings

April data confirms deepening consumption slump, increasing pressure on People's Bank of China for monetary easing

Rail delays force cargo to costlier trucking, lifting Houston-Chicago spot rates 18% and pushing inflation expectations higher

Quantitative tightening drains systemic liquidity, pushing short-term Treasury yields higher and maintaining pressure on duration risk

New Fed Chair emphasizes firm commitment to price stability, challenging rate cut expectations as short-dated Treasuries sell off

Fed funds futures now price 78% chance of June pause as shelter costs and energy prices maintain upward pressure

Consumer Price Index figures are anticipated to reinforce persistent inflation, tightening duration risk for bondholders and solidifying the Fed's higher-for-longer stance

Foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell for the first time in four weeks amid suspected Japanese currency intervention

Precious metal's strength persists despite two-year Treasury yield above 4.80 percent, highlighting investor concern about Fed's inflation control

Beijing grants access for select international institutions to its bond futures market in measured expansion of world's second-largest debt market

A US-flagged Maersk ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz with military escort has amplified geopolitical tensions, signaling potential inflationary pressures that could impact central bank policy.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's warning to Spirit passengers underscores operational fragilities that continue to fuel services inflation, reinforcing a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and impacting duration risk.

South Korean official’s denial of classified intelligence leak fails to fully quell market jitters, prompting a cautious re-evaluation of regional sovereign and corporate credit risk.

Persistent price pressures in latest CPI report force bond markets to recalibrate expectations, solidifying a higher-for-longer rate outlook

Climbing gasoline and airfares signal persistent inflation pressures, forcing bond markets to reprice rate cut expectations and increasing duration risk across fixed income portfolios

February's 2.2% SAAR rise in consumer credit, driven by nonrevolving loans, indicates robust demand and potential inflation stickiness, challenging the Fed's rate cut outlook.

Pope Leo's Easter plea for an end to global conflicts underscores the persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk premium embedded in sovereign bond yields, complicating central bank policy paths.

President Trump's appeal against a judicial halt on his $400M White House project raises fiscal policy questions, suggesting potential spending constraints and increased political uncertainty for bond markets.

President Trump's assertion of fiscal prudence on a White House project, despite an ongoing lawsuit, injects fresh debate into the market's assessment of future government spending and its implications for Treasury yields.