Inflation

Supply cushions that absorbed a record disruption are now depleted, leaving crude markets vulnerable to fresh shocks and inflation risks for fixed-income investors.

Aug. 20 intervention targets duration compression at long end of curve as yields near two-decade peaks

France's long-end borrowing costs surged Wednesday as fiscal concerns widened the spread over German bunds, while oil's fourth straight gain kept inflation pressure on duration-heavy portfolios.

Low inflation and coal-heavy energy mix let Beijing hold rates steady while peers hike, pulling capital from other emerging markets.

The Energy Information Administration's Monday retail survey shows on-highway diesel up sharply, adding direct cost pressure to freight-dependent supply chains.

BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.

The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.

Spot ethylene posted its third straight weekly loss and PGP its fourth as June export demand cools from the spike driven by the Iran conflict.

Brent crude settled at $87.72 Monday as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty returned, pulling the S&P 500 4.53 points below Friday's all-time high.

Retail sales grew 0.6 percent year-over-year in July, urban fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7 percent year-to-date, and new bank loans posted their largest monthly decline on record.

Lori Calvasina's equity strategy team finds pricing power shifting away from businesses for the first time since the pandemic, with super core inflation at 3.5 percent year-over-year.

University of Michigan inflation expectations hit 4.3% for the year ahead, putting rate-sensitive and consumer stocks in the crossfire as earnings season resumes.

The Treasury is set to sell $16 billion in 20-year debt Wednesday with when-issued yields at 5.27 percent — the highest for that tenor since its 2020 reintroduction.

Year-on-year inflation reached 88 percent by late July as a naval blockade and five months of war push ordinary Iranians to the financial edge.

Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.

Spot bitcoin ETFs posted back-to-back outflows for the first time since late July, erasing last week's price gains as BTC slides below $63,000.

AlphaSimplex's Kathryn Kaminski says bonds now respond to geopolitical risk and inflation rather than U.S. growth data, stripping traders of their traditional navigation tools.

An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.

U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.

Jim Bianco flags 'bubblicious' used car inflation outpacing Bitcoin while Vance's Ukraine tanker request and North Sea well closures tighten the crude outlook.

Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.

Elevated corporate goods prices and a weak yen are pushing the Bank of Japan toward a September rate increase, analysts say

RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent says softening housing market is tightening financial conditions after three rate hikes and tax policy changes.

Japan's corporate goods price index climbed 7.1 percent in June, beating forecasts and reinforcing market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase by October.

Crude advances for a sixth session as U.S.-Iran talks over Strait traffic collapse, sustaining supply shocks that extend duration risk across fixed-income portfolios

Core inflation held at 2.5 percent while employers shed 23,000 jobs and real wages fell 0.2 percent, shifting Fed rate expectations toward a September pause.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Two consecutive monthly declines in auto insurance costs provided a rare deflationary impulse in services, even as annual CPI held at 3.4 percent.

Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.

Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

Investors moved into riskier bond segments last month even as New York Fed data showed consumer credit card debt at a record $1.26 trillion.

Japan's benchmark index climbs to 66,890.02 as AI-linked shares advance; bond traders brace for U.S. inflation data that could reset rate-cut odds.

Economists project a 0.1 percent monthly CPI gain for July and 3.4 percent year-over-year, enough to keep the short end of the yield curve on edge.

Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.

Mutual funds and households now drive Treasury demand, pushing long-maturity yields to multi-decade peaks as inflation credibility concerns mount.

The yen has surrendered nearly half its intervention-driven gains; the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady but left the door open to further hikes.

Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.

Bullion gained 3.6 percent over two sessions, lifted by Chinese ETF inflows and technical buying, with July CPI data due Wednesday.

Asia markets fall and U.S. indices decline as surging oil prices lift inflation expectations and reinforce a higher-for-longer rate outlook.

StoneX projects a 2.9 million metric ton surplus for 2025-26, while French trader Sucres et Denrees says data gaps obscure the full extent of oversupply.

The acceleration, driven by rent and fuel price hikes, raises the likelihood that authorities will hold interest rates steady at their next meeting.

After cutting annual inflation from 211 percent to 31.8 percent in two years, President Javier Milei is pushing to lock future governments into the same fiscal constraints—a plan with real results and real risks.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent on declining labor force participation, not stronger hiring.

The Texas Republican told Americans worried about food costs to 'stop whining' and 'get a job,' exposing divisions inside the GOP on economic messaging.

Crude prices advanced as Strait of Hormuz supply concerns revived inflation fears, pushing Treasury yields higher ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report.

The Dow fell 0.8 percent and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent as rising crude prices stoked inflation concerns ahead of Friday's jobs report.

The Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark rate for a fourth straight review as energy costs and a consumer inflation gap of 3-plus percentage points signal growing pressure beneath the headline numbers.

Drought-driven low water levels on Europe's key rivers are halting chemical and oil shipments, forcing nuclear plants to cut output and driving up transport costs.

Stretched valuations, rising rates and buyer exhaustion in tech signal the automatic-rebound trade is losing its structural support.

Former Fed official Alberto Musalem says the bond market's selloff reflects eroding confidence in the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation target.