Inflation

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said AI is not fueling inflation now but could contribute to price increases down the road.

Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce as bond traders price in higher probability of a Fed rate hike, reshaping duration risk across fixed-income portfolios

Bond yields surge on hotter-than-expected inflation data and Federal Reserve officials' warnings of more aggressive rate hikes ahead.

Government projects persistent gasoline and diesel costs despite expected Middle East output increases, signaling structural shifts in energy market dynamics.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller backed a December rate increase and warned of a half-point move if price pressures persist, tightening the higher-for-longer narrative.

Falling crude prices reduce near-term inflation concerns, prompting bond markets to price in softer Fed rate expectations.

Energy drink giant's largest two-year drop reveals cost inflation is eroding profitability faster than pricing adjustments can offset.

The BoE's latest hike immediately extends duration pressure across shorter-dated gilt maturities, forcing portfolio repositioning on steeper curve expectations.

Energy costs driven by Middle East conflict push the Philippines' central bank toward aggressive rate tightening despite supply-side headwinds.

A European Central Bank official said the economic impact from Iran developments is proving more durable than policymakers initially estimated

Crude stabilization reduces tail risk of energy-driven inflation shock, allowing Fed to hold policy without immediate rate adjustment

The Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged after confirming its core inflation measure hit 2 percent for the first time, triggering a reassessment of JGB yield curve expectations.

Cameron Dawson argues the Fed faces an impossible choice: tighten financial conditions without triggering the stock and credit volatility that rate suppression requires.

UBS analysis: 170 million tons of global production now unprofitable; sustained low prices needed to force high-cost supply out of market, moderating inflation expectations.

Coca-Cola, P&G, Nestle and Reckitt plan additional increases next year, keeping input-cost pass-through alive and duration risk elevated.

Housing data that lags but shapes Fed expectations—bond traders watch for signs that price momentum will force a longer pause in rate cuts

Prices tumbled to the lowest since October 2022, pressuring the commodity complex and potentially giving central banks room to cut rates if disinflation accelerates

Crude surge to five-month high pushes long-end yields higher while AI selloff widens credit spreads, complicating Fed's inflation-growth tradeoff

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Friday the nation's economic expansion will fall short of the May budget projection as interest rate increases slow activity

Zoetis shares have collapsed as pet owners cut spending on premium treatments, yet hedge fund accumulation suggests Wall Street is missing the structural headwind.

Equity selloff overwhelms inflation signals; bond market prioritizes safety over rate-hike expectations, compressing curve as flight-to-quality bids duration.

Consumer inflation fell short of expectations while factory-gate prices accelerated, creating a policy bind for the People's Bank of China between easing and inflation risk

The first software price increase since 1998 has shifted Fed focus to near-term AI inflation, delaying integration of longer-term productivity gains into official forecasts

Consumer sentiment fell below expectations while long-term inflation expectations climbed, signaling de-anchoring risks that could keep the Fed restrictive longer

Bond traders price diminished odds of near-term rate cuts as Fed reiterates inflation concerns, keeping yields elevated across the curve

Contract rate climbed 19 basis points to highest level in nearly a year as 10-year Treasury yields reach 2002 peaks, crushing purchase demand

The single currency fell to $1.116 this week as markets bet the ECB will raise rates less than inflation data suggests, while France's borrowing costs diverge sharply from Germany's.

The Reserve Bank of India lifted its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 5.5 percent, the first hike since February 2023, as retail inflation breaches the central bank's 4 percent target for a third consecutive month.

UK blue-chip index closed 11 points lower as 30-year gilt yields topped 6 percent and Middle East tensions drove oil higher.

The Reserve Bank of India raised its key lending rate by 25 basis points and shifted to tightening mode, citing inflation pressures from crude prices and geopolitical risks.

Research by Man Group shows the speed of price growth matters more than high inflation itself in damaging Treasury performance, challenging conventional wisdom.

Food and fuel price shocks push Philippines inflation 40 basis points above forecast, ending disinflationary streak and cementing case for further BSP rate hikes.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan index fell to 67.1 in early October after the RBA raised rates to 4.6 percent, with mortgage holders and renters showing the sharpest declines

Labor Department data shows real wage contraction while energy prices surge, mirroring structural conditions from the 1970s stagflation period.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the latest energy-cost surge poses offsetting inflation and growth risks that could limit further tightening, even as markets price in two to three additional hikes.

The Turkish central bank reduced rates by 100 basis points citing faster-than-expected disinflation, yet its own forward guidance and market pricing suggest entrenched inflation expectations will resist further cuts.

Higher borrowing costs and tax reforms on property investment are accelerating declines in Australia's largest markets, with some forecasting drops exceeding 10 percent.

U.S. payrolls fell 61,000 short of forecasts in September, crushing rate-hike odds and sending the 10-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points.

Wall Street forecasts a sharp slowdown in U.S. job growth to 84,000 for September as the Fed shifts focus to inflation despite stable employment conditions.

Soaring petrol and diesel costs are generating unexpected tax revenue for Britain's exchequer, but persistent inflation pressures may force the Chancellor to choose between relief measures and fiscal consolidation.

Long-term Treasury yields climbed to a 19-year high this week, driven by elevated inflation and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes

New Delhi eliminated tariffs on crude sunflower oil and halved duties on soybean and palm oils on Sept. 24, prompting refiners to accelerate purchases while officials demand retail price cuts.

Softer August inflation failed to arrest the bond selloff as the Bank of Japan's hawkish pivot and persistent global price pressures keep duration under pressure

Minneapolis Fed President signals additional tightening as he challenges assumptions about policy restrictiveness and elevated neutral rate

Consumer prices rose less than expected, with the core PCE index reaching 3.0 percent annually, shifting market bets away from an October rate increase.

New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel crack spread hits $110.40 a barrel, driven by Middle East conflict, Russian export ban, and refinery outages that tighten global product markets despite subdued crude prices.

A large institutional options trade and surge in convexity hedging accelerate Treasury losses, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.35%—its highest since 2007.

Spot gold held steady Wednesday as traders balanced a 92 percent probability of a December rate hike against oil-driven inflation hedging and Iran diplomacy signals.

The 10-year Treasury yield surges nearly 50 basis points this month as global sovereign debt sells off, signaling a shift to a structurally higher-yield regime.

May's headline CPI miss versus RBA forecasts removes August rate hike pricing, but sticky core inflation keeps long-end risk premium intact.