Tag
Bond Market
50 articles
10-Year Yield Hits 5.34%, Futures Price 92% Hike Odds
Treasury yields surge to 16-year highs as Fed futures signal rate increase despite Trump's calls for cuts
10-Year Yield Hits 5.208%, Highest Since June 2007
Long-term Treasury yields climbed to a 19-year high this week, driven by elevated inflation and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes
Kashkari vs. Bubble Warnings: Is AI Growth Real or Mirage?
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari challenged the narrative that data center spending alone is propping up U.S. growth, while Michael Burry and Goldman Sachs warn of an AI financing bubble.
10-Year Yield Nears 5% as $14M Options Bet Shows More Selling Ahead
A large institutional options trade and surge in convexity hedging accelerate Treasury losses, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.35%—its highest since 2007.
Australian 2-Year Yield Falls 35 Bps as Headline CPI Drops to 4.0%
May's headline CPI miss versus RBA forecasts removes August rate hike pricing, but sticky core inflation keeps long-end risk premium intact.
Barclays Forecasts 30-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 6 Percent on Productivity Growth
Barclays Capital's head of U.S. rates research, Anshul Pradhan, projects the long-term yield could rise to 6 percent, driven by the artificial intelligence investment boom and faster economic expansion.
5% Treasury Yields Offer Buffer, Redraw Fixed-Income Investment Case
The 10-year Treasury yield's rise past 5 percent, a level not seen since 2007, is attracting new capital to fixed income despite anticipated Federal Reserve rate increases.
MOVE Index Rises 35% as Hartnett Flags Deleveraging Risk
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett identifies two triggers for risk-off selling as Treasury volatility spikes.
10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 5% as Duration Risk Changes Portfolios
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 5 percent Monday, a level absent from sustained trading since 2007, forcing portfolio managers to recalibrate for higher-for-longer rates.
Fed Lifts Rates to 3.75%-4.00% for First Time Since Summer 2023
The quarter-point hike steepens the short end of the yield curve as bond traders reprice forward rate expectations against persistent inflation above 2 percent.
Treasury Yields Fall to 4.99% on Fed Hike, Warsh Shows Inflation Fight
The 10-year Treasury yield declined three basis points to 4.99% following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate increase, ending an eight-day rally in long-end yields.
ECB, BOE Rate Hike Bets Surge: Germany Two-Year Yield Hits 3.08%
Interest rate swaps now price 90 basis points of ECB increases by December 2027, with Bank of England showing similar tightening expectations as oil climbs above $100.
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.9%, Eyes 5% as Oil, Inflation Persist
The benchmark yield reached its highest level since November 2023 as wholesale inflation and crude oil above $100 per barrel push rates higher, with strategists warning of sustained upward pressure.
Warsh's 'Inflation is a Choice' Shows Higher-For-Longer — Duration Risk Rises
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declared inflation a monetary policy choice and said the FOMC is unanimously committed to price stability, prompting bond markets to reprice rate-cut odds lower
Treasury Buyback Fails to Stem 10-Year Surge to 4.85%
Scott Bessent's $6 billion bond repurchase operation backfired Wednesday as the 10-year yield hit its highest level since November 2023, signaling market rejection of official yield management.
PPI at 5.4% Pushes September Hike Odds to 63% — Duration Risk Peaks
Producer prices jumped 0.4% in August as prediction markets price in a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting; Friday's CPI report will be decisive.
Treasury's $6B Buyback Fails to Halt 10-Year Climb to 4.85%
The U.S. Treasury's debt repurchase operation disappoints bond markets, with the 10-year yield hitting a three-year high as investors signal the intervention was too small.
Bessent Deploys Operation Twist as 30-Year Yields Hit 2007 Highs
Treasury expands buyback program targeting the 10-to-30-year curve after long-bond selloff compresses duration demand.
2-Year Yield Hits 4.39%, Shows Rate-Hike Pricing Into Near Term
Short-end Treasury surge to fresh daily highs reflects market repricing of Fed tightening odds; 10-year breaks 4.79%
U.S. Debt to Hit $41 Trillion by Year-End; Markets Price 90% Probability
Treasury must borrow $987 billion in 134 days to cross $41 trillion; Q4 borrowing pace historically supports the projection
FedWatch Prices 58% Chance of September Hike as UBS Forecasts Two 25bp Increases
UBS revises its 2026 outlook to two 25 basis point rate increases—September and December—citing stronger August jobs data and hawkish Fed communication.
Waller Shows September Hold; Futures Price 48.4% Chance of Hike
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's confidence in disinflation trends sent rate-hold odds to 51.6%, a sharp pivot from Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole warning that policy may need more tightening.
Waller Shows CPI as Pivot Point — Futures Price 50-50 Odds on September Hike
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller downplayed August payrolls data, positioning next week's consumer price report as the deciding factor for the central bank's September rate decision.
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4B as 10-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
The Treasury expanded bond purchases to $4 billion per operation through November, signaling urgency as long-end yields surge past levels unseen since 2004.
TSX Posts Worst Decline in a Month as Middle East Tensions Hit Tech and Banks
The S&P/TSX Composite fell 283.44 points Monday, erasing a month of gains as geopolitical pressure drove new 52-week lows to triple from Friday's count.
Warsh Speech Lifts Fed Hike Odds to 58 Percent as Treasury Yields Spike
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on Friday shifted bond market pricing sharply toward a September rate increase, with two-year Treasury yields jumping 13 basis points.
Warsh Breaks Jackson Hole Tradition, Withholds Rate Guidance as Inflation Concerns Mount
Fed Chair's refusal to signal future rate direction leaves bond markets parsing a shift toward opacity, as traders price in sticky inflation risks.
Warsh Shows September Hike Risk; Traders Price 60% Odds
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that persistent inflation may force a rate increase, pushing September hike probability to 60% from 35% overnight
Private Sector Lifts Treasury Demand as EM Bonds Yield 5.78%
Foreign private ownership of U.S. Treasuries reaches 59%, cushioning yield pressure on emerging markets as EM fixed income outpaces global aggregates.
Warsh's Jackson Hole Silence Risks Further Treasury Selling
New Fed chair's refusal to signal rate path leaves bond traders searching for clues as 10-year yields test 2007 highs.
30-Year Yield Hits 2007 High as $40 Trillion Debt Pile Strains Long End
The Treasury's shift to shorter maturities and surge in long-term rates signal the late-cycle conditions Ray Dalio has long warned about.
Bessent's Bond Buyback Doubles, Cuts 30-Year Yield 8 Basis Points
Treasury expands debt repurchases, 30-year yield falls to 5.18 percent, and swap markets confirm the intervention is gaining traction
10-Year Yield Drops 7 Basis Points as Oil Falls on Iran Sanctions Shift
Brent crude fell to $89.20 and WTI to $82.21 as Washington chose sanctions over military action against Iran, pulling Treasuries higher across the curve.
China's Banks Price Bonds Off Overnight Rate as PBOC Framework Shift Takes Hold
Chinese lenders are now benchmarking bond issuance to the overnight funding rate, confirming the PBOC's June 17 overhaul is reshaping the world's second-largest bond market from the ground up.
Treasury's Long-Bond Buyback Is Reallocation, Not Stimulus
The quarterly budget stayed at $38 billion while per-operation ceilings doubled, exposing the gap between what buybacks can accomplish and what markets assumed.
Treasury Yields Whipsaw on Fed Shows; Bessent Policy Stance in Focus
U.S. bond markets swung sharply this week between employment-driven rallies and yield curve steepening, with traders parsing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's policy direction amid persistent inflation concerns.
30-Year Treasuries Break 5% as Central Banks Hold Rates Steady
Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31
Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks to Fight Yield Surge
Aug. 20 intervention targets duration compression at long end of curve as yields near two-decade peaks
Weak Data Crushes Rate-Hike Bets; 30-Year Yields Rise on Valuation Demand
Investors slash U.S. and U.K. rate-increase expectations on softer economic data, but long-duration Treasury yields climb as real-money buyers grow selective on entry points
Treasury Yields Retreat as Auctions and Iran Risk Cloud Rate-Cut Outlook
The 10-year yield fell to 4.708% Tuesday ahead of the 20-year auction, but inflation breakevens hardened and geopolitical uncertainty left the curve vulnerable to fresh selling.
Ukraine's Corporate Bond Market Hits 24% Yields as Sovereign Compression Drives Retail Shift
As government bond yields decline, Ukrainian retail investors are rotating into higher-yielding corporate debt, reshaping a market that was nearly dormant before the latest cycle.
Japan 10-Year Yield Hits 2.945%, Highest Since September 1996
BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.
30-Year U.S. Yield Tops 5.30% as Global Bond Selloff Hits Multi-Decade Highs
The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.
$16 Billion 20-Year Auction Eyes Record Yield as Long-End Selloff Continues
The Treasury is set to sell $16 billion in 20-year debt Wednesday with when-issued yields at 5.27 percent — the highest for that tenor since its 2020 reintroduction.
Fed Holds at 3.50%-3.75% as September Hike Odds Rise
Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.
Economists' Rate Forecasts Miss Year After Year — The Philadelphia Fed Data Shows Why
Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.
CPI Cools to 3.4% in July as Job Losses Mount, Reducing Case for September Hike
Core inflation held at 2.5 percent while employers shed 23,000 jobs and real wages fell 0.2 percent, shifting Fed rate expectations toward a September pause.
CPI Holds at 3.4%, Core Slips to 2.5% — Warsh Gets Room to Pause in September
Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.
RBA Holds at 4.35%, Bullock Flags Hikes; Swaps Price 50% Chance of November Move
Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.
July CPI Forecast at 3.4% Puts Fed Pause Under Pressure as Yields Face Renewed Test
Economists project a 0.1 percent monthly CPI gain for July and 3.4 percent year-over-year, enough to keep the short end of the yield curve on edge.