federal reserve

The Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, published Fridays by 4:15 p.m. Eastern, covers assets and liabilities across domestically chartered and foreign-related U.S. banks.

Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.

A shift in U.S. rate expectations and AI-driven growth optimism pushed EM equities and local currencies higher Friday, extending a week of broad gains.

The 1-week 25-delta skew fell to roughly 4% from elevated June levels as large traders accumulate $70,000 strike calls ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

Two rounds of intervention have failed to hold the line; the Treasury-JGB spread is the structural force Tokyo cannot unilaterally close.

U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.

Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.

Core inflation held at 2.5 percent while employers shed 23,000 jobs and real wages fell 0.2 percent, shifting Fed rate expectations toward a September pause.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Two consecutive monthly declines in auto insurance costs provided a rare deflationary impulse in services, even as annual CPI held at 3.4 percent.

Emerging market equities rose in July as cooler U.S. CPI data shifted Federal Reserve rate expectations, ending two months of capital outflows.

Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

Traders shift to derivatives for yen exposure before Wednesday's inflation data as U.S.-Iran deal uncertainty keeps currency and energy markets on edge.

Investors moved into riskier bond segments last month even as New York Fed data showed consumer credit card debt at a record $1.26 trillion.

Economists project a 0.1 percent monthly CPI gain for July and 3.4 percent year-over-year, enough to keep the short end of the yield curve on edge.

U.S. consumers drove auto, credit card and home equity balances higher in the second quarter even as the overall delinquency rate dipped, the New York Fed said.

Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.

Mutual funds and households now drive Treasury demand, pushing long-maturity yields to multi-decade peaks as inflation credibility concerns mount.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced forward guidance is generating market uncertainty, prompting analysts to cite Canada's post-2008 central bank policy as a historical parallel.

The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.

Bullion gained 3.6 percent over two sessions, lifted by Chinese ETF inflows and technical buying, with July CPI data due Wednesday.

U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's yen intervention and signals of potential long-bond sale reductions aim to pull U.S. long-term rates off a 19-year high.

Spot gold rose past $4,250 per ounce after July payrolls fell 23,000, slashing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 41.9 percent.

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 forecast, but economists say the labor market's stability supports the Fed's current rate posture.

Copper steadied after six weeks of gains while traders weighed tightening supply, a 44 percent Fed hike probability and geopolitical risk in Middle East shipping lanes.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent on declining labor force participation, not stronger hiring.

The July CPI report on Aug. 12 and Nvidia's Q2 earnings on Aug. 26 will shape rate expectations and AI spending, pressuring native DeFi yields against tokenized Treasuries.

The White House sent Cook a letter saying it is considering her removal and giving her three weeks to respond to unproven mortgage fraud allegations.

The White House sent Fed Governor Lisa Cook a letter demanding she respond within three weeks to unproven mortgage fraud allegations — a step toward removal.

An unexpected contraction in July employment pushed traders to raise bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, lifting futures and commodity prices.

Tokyo and Washington jointly pushed the yen from 163 to 157 against the dollar, but analysts warn the move treats symptoms rather than the rate-differential cause.

Crude prices advanced as Strait of Hormuz supply concerns revived inflation fears, pushing Treasury yields higher ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, sustaining the yield floor for tokenized Treasuries and tightening the capital-flow competition against DeFi lending pools.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backs Japan's use of the FIMA Repo Facility, giving Tokyo dollar liquidity for yen intervention without liquidating Treasury holdings.

Former Fed official Alberto Musalem says the bond market's selloff reflects eroding confidence in the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation target.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Federal Reserve coordinated with Tokyo to reverse the yen's depreciation, pushing the currency up 4.5 percent against the dollar.

The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.78 percent after a 15-basis-point surge, as July CPI at 3.8 percent and 250,000 new payroll jobs reinforced the Fed's higher-for-longer posture.

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell six points in July, its third straight monthly decline, as 7.15 percent mortgage rates erode demand and compress builder margins.

ING strategists say a prolonged Fed pause signals economic weakness, eroding the dollar's carry appeal and dampening crude demand.

Bitcoin climbs 4 percent on the week while AI stocks sell off, with Ethereum at a two-month high and the Fear & Greed Index flashing 29.

Analysts say Washington faces a 100-day political window to de-escalate the Iran conflict, a move that could flood markets with sidelined crude.

Falling oil futures are feeding disinflationary expectations, pulling the two-year Treasury yield down 10 basis points and widening the 2s/10s spread to negative 47 basis points.

U.S. stock index futures climbed after a halt in U.S.-Iran hostilities redirected investor attention to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and major tech earnings.

Business sentiment reached its highest level since 2011, but the S&P 500 went flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.6 percent, widening a gap between executive confidence and market reality

Unit labor costs are outpacing output gains by 3.1 percentage points, reinforcing expectations for a Fed hold at the Sept. 18 meeting.

Bond markets are repricing a 25-basis-point hike at the July 31 Fed meeting after a sharp jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns across duration-sensitive portfolios.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.

An economy engineered to resist downturns keeps inflation sticky and rates high, compounding capital losses for fixed-income portfolios holding long-dated assets.