Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, stated on X today, November 11, 2026, that a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is a certainty. Timiraos wrote, "There is now little doubt that the Fed will raise rates in December. After a third firm inflation report, the question is how fast: continue to take it one meeting at a time with 25? front-load with 50? signal the possibility of a faster sequence of 25s? Tactical calls like this tend to get settled by the chair. Greenspan in Aug ‘94 and May 2000. Powell going to 75 in June 2022."
Current market sentiment, as reported by ZeroHedge, suggests Goldman Sachs has already added a third rate hike to its forecast for the year. This follows a core inflation spike to 4.1%, which has triggered an 80% probability for a December hike. The Treasury market has experienced a selloff during inflation surprises and a perceived hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve. Peter Schiff has called for a 200 basis point rate hike to combat surging inflation, highlighting the intensity of the current economic debate.
Timiraos's statement implies that market focus will shift from the certainty of a Fed hike to the aggressiveness of its action. His reference to historical precedents suggests that the ultimate decision on the pace of rate increases often rests with the Fed chair. This indicates that investors will closely watch for any signals regarding the central bank's strategy for managing inflation, particularly concerning whether it will opt for a gradual approach or a more forceful intervention.
