Nick Timiraos

“The September CPI and PPI translate into a core PCE projection of around 0.34%, which would be the highest monthly reading since January. That would push the 12-month change to 3.1% (from 3% in August) and the 3-month annualized rate to 2.9% (from 2.0%).”

“The Treasury Department says Judy Shelton will become a counselor to Bessent to advise on currency policy, 'with a particular focus on evaluating financial conditions in China.'”

“Waller: 'I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.'”

“New from the New York Fed: 'By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly.' About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year. • A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year. • About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports,…”

“This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. The September CPI, due Oc…”

“Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signals officials may want more time before raising rates again, echoing NY Fed's John Williams. Two of the Fed's top leaders are now obliquely casting doubt on an October hike that had been increasingly priced by investors a few days ago. From Jefferson’s talk: 'As we look ahead, my view is that any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in…”

“The long and short of the PCE report is that it doesn't much change the trend relative to what was already known (ie., are price pressures actually easing, or did the way prices are measured change). June and July were good, but that was already known. August showed that didn't continue, which was already evident after the PPI and CPI numbers came out. Market-based prices are running around 3%, before and after th…”

“New Fed guidance: 'There is no need for urgency.' John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors. He lays out his base case: One more hike 'may be appropriate late this year.' Following Warsh’s press conference two weeks ago, markets had pushed pricing of an October rate increase above 50% — to as high a…”

“Fed governor Lisa Cook maps out how she sees AI contributing to demand-side pressures now with the potential for a future, limited easing in those pressures as productivity benefits accrue: On the near-term outlook: 'In coming months I expect to see continued pressure on inflation from the AI buildout, as discussed today, and from the pass-through of higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions associated with t…”

“In the early days of Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Fed alone. It hasn’t worked out that way. The White House theory rested on fiscal restraint that never arrived and overlooked how much of Trump’s own agenda would feed…”