Peter Schiff

“The most likely legislation Congress can pass that Trump will sign will preserve all the tax cuts Trump brags about but include all the extra spending that Democrats want. It may also contain a complete repeal of the national debt ceiling and price controls on credit card interest rates. The result will be massive increases in already massive federal budget deficits. If the economy also slips into recession due to…”

“Of all the market reactions to the Democratic landslide, the Bitcoin rally is the most irrational. A Democratic Congress will take a hostile stance against crypto, which will get worse in 2028 when they have the White House and all the Bitcoin in the Strategic Reserve gets sold.”

“A few months ago interest on the national debt passed defense. Now it’s 40% higher. Next year it passes Social Security. The biggest line in the budget is the one nobody voted for.”

“The odds of the Democrats winning the Senate are now 75%. Investors are underestimating how inflationary a Democratic Congress will be. They assume gridlock. We won't be that lucky. Trump is more Democratic than Republican and will sign into law anything they pass. Got gold?”

“The odds of the Democrats winning the Senate have risen to 72%, a new high. The real reason the Republicans are doing so badly is that despite the fact that the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office, he and other Republicans claim it's booming. This infuriates voters.”

“This is the most brilliant political ad I've ever seen. Democrats are telling Republicans why the Republican candidate is bad and the Libertarian candidate, whom most Republicans have never even heard of, is worse. The ad, paid for by the Ohio Democratic Party and authorized by Friends of Sherrod Brown, describes the Republican incumbent as voting for reckless government spending that increased the national debt,…”

“The odds of the Democrats winning the Senate are now 71%, a new high. If the stock market crashes on Monday expect those odds to rise further. The problem for Republicans is that they have to lie that a bad economy is good. Democrats just have to lie that they can make it better.”

“The Sept. U.S. trade deficit in goods was $134.9 billion, the highest ever recorded in Sept. There were only three months in history when the deficit was higher, all under Trump in 2025. Here are the facts. Measured by the size of our trade deficits, Trump has been the worst president in history on trade. The tariffs have been a complete failure. Not only have they failed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., b…”

“It's 2008 for Housing and 2021 for Inflation.. At the Same Time. Export prices rose 2.2% in September. That's more than the Fed's entire 2% yearly inflation target in a single month. Annualized, it's 30%. The cost of living crisis is about to get much worse.”

“Bitcoin is finally breaking down. It's hard to believe it's held up this long. Now that it's below $80K, the next stop is likely $75K. If that level fails to hold today, it's going to be a very long weekend for Bitcoiners, especially for ETF investors who can't sell until Monday.”

“Pershing Square’s @BillAckman presents his proposed Fannie and Freddie privatization as a windfall for taxpayers. But assigning a higher market value to shares the government continues to hold does not, by itself, create new wealth for taxpayers. Taxpayers already own valuable senior preferred-stock rights and warrants. Ackman wants Treasury’s preferred investment deemed repaid. Yet past payments were dividends; t…”

“Gold fell $116 today, closing just above $4,000 support. Traders seem to be bracing for a tech wreck and an unwind of the leveraged AI trade. They may be right to expect that, but they're wrong that gold will fall too. Gold already corrected. A stock market crash will be bullish.”

“The Fed's inflation target is 2% a year. Export prices just rose 2.2% in one month. That annualizes to 30%. Producer prices rose 1.3%, a 17% annual rate. Oil just hit a five-month high of $110. If you think the cost of living crisis is bad now.. just wait”

“Oil is $110, up another 6% this morning. We are still early in a major breakout in the price of oil that will substantially raise the cost of living. Plus, it's not just energy. The price of all everyday necessities is about to soar. This is a tax hike to cover deficit spending.”

“My electricity bill for my primary residence was 24% higher in Oct. 2026 than it was in Oct. 2025. It's the same house with all the same appliances. This isn't what happens in an economy where the inflation rate is anywhere near 2%. That's just one bill. They're all going way up.”

“It's the Republicans' fault that the Democrats will win Congress in the midterms and the White House in 2028. By pursuing the same failed policies of the past, but lying about having done something different to solve the problems those policies created, they opened the door for the Democrats to falsely claim that they are better qualified to solve them. Of course, once elected, they will compound the problems even…”

“CPI, PPI and import prices all came in hotter than expected this week. Traders sold gold anyway. They think it means the Fed will fight harder. It means the Fed already lost. Gold at $4,145 is a gift.”

“Don't pay attention to what Warsh says; look at what he does. If he were serious about reducing inflation, the Fed's balance sheet and M2 would be shrinking. Instead, the balance sheet is larger than when he became Fed Chair, and M2 is growing at nearly a 6% annualized rate.”

“Producer prices skyrocketed 1.3% in Sept., almost triple estimates. That annualizes to an inflation rate of nearly 17%! YoY PPI rose 6.3%. Sept. core rose 0.7%. That annualizes to nearly 9% inflation. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI. Despite rate hikes, real rates are plunging.”

“Today in the broader U.S. stock market, 479 stocks made 52-week lows while only 60 made 52-week highs. That's eight stocks hitting new lows for every one hitting a new high. Trump likes to take credit for a booming stock market. But most stocks are actually in bear markets.”

“Both capitalism and socialism try to satisfy the needs and desires of the people. The difference is that only capitalism succeeds. Private owners of capital have a profit motive to satisfy their customers. Government bureaucrats have no such incentive and are instead motivated to use their political power to enrich themselves at the people's expense.”

“I’m tired of hearing Republicans who voted for the Big Beautiful Bill take credit for cutting taxes. They did not. That bill made the federal government bigger and more expensive than ever. The public will bear that burden, which will more than offset those fake tax cuts.”

“U.S. regulators just fined American Express $350 million for critical AML deficiencies that failed to detect about $13 billion in suspicious activity over more than a decade. Yet American Express was not shut down. Nor did regulators hold a press conference to announce the results of their findings. My bank was the subject of an extensive criminal investigation led by the IRS that included four other nations and s…”

“Today Trump announced a deal to supply Russian diesel to U.S. and global markets. Just three weeks ago, he signed a law targeting major buyers of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100%. The goal was to cut off funding for Putin’s war against Ukraine. So what changed?”

“The U.S. trade deficit rose to $105.6B in August from an upwardly revised $92.8B in July, the fifth-biggest monthly trade deficit in history. However, if you exclude the first three months of 2025, when imports were pulled forward to front-run tariffs, and March 2022, when pent-up demand was unleashed by the reopening of the economy following the pandemic shutdown, the Aug. 2026 trade deficit was the biggest month…”

“29,000 Jobs and Bonds Still Fell.. The Bond Vigilantes Are Here”

“Not only were the 29K jobs created in Sept. below expectations, but as I predicted last month, July and Aug. were revised down by 31K and 29K respectively. My guess is that all three months will ultimately be revised even lower. We have a weak labor market with strong inflation.”

“The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Our national debt in 2002 was just $6 trillion. Paying 5.33% on that entire amount would cost $319.8 billion annually. On today’s $40.1 trillion debt, it would cost $2.14 trillion annually—more than Social Security.”

“The yield on the 10-year Treasury just hit 5.27%. It first hit 5% exactly two weeks ago. At this rate, the yield will hit 6% by Nov. 5, just two days after the midterm elections. By then the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage will be over 8%. That'll be a major issue for voters.”

“At one time the U.S. was a low debt, low interest rate economy. We then became a low debt, high interest rate economy. After that we got lucky and became a high debt, low interest rate economy. Our luck just ran out. Get ready for our new high debt, high interest rate economy.”