Raoul Pal

“Everything we use to understand the economy, from GDP to wages to debt, was created in a world where intelligence was scarce. That is no longer the case. Very soon the economy will accelerate beyond anything our models can make sense of. I call this the Economic Singularity, and I think it'll arrive in around 4 years. This is phase three of the journey I map out in The Everything Code, which is out tomorrow. As ev…”

“Dollar, rates and oil all going up.. all three tighten financial conditions, which leads liquidity, which leads markets. Crypto needs those three to dissipate. Coming into the midterms Trump wants oil, rates and the dollar down. Oil probably gets done via an Iran resolution.. Thats what reignites the ability to take risk and brings capital back into markets.”

“We have about four years. Four years to get yourself sorted before the economy starts to work in ways none of us are used to.. youll still be able to invest after that, but the rules will be different. Everyone can feel it. Everything costs more, its harder to get ahead.. the way out is technology and scarce assets. I wrote The Everything Code to help as many people as possible see whats coming and get ahead of it…”

“The hyperscalers are the biggest cash-generating businesses the world has ever seen. And they’re recycling all of that cash flow into the biggest capex build in history. It’s a self-reinforcing loop. They use the technology they’re building themselves, productivity rises, cash flows rise, capex accelerates. People worry about the borrowing, but these companies carry roughly 3.5% of their market cap in debt. They’r…”

“Look at Amazon.. revenue up 53% since 2021 on the same number of people. Thats productivity. Hyperscaler headcount has been basically flat for three years while earnings have gone exponential. I wrote about exactly this a month ago in GMI. The issue is called The New Macro, and in it I address the bubble question TLDR is that we're measuring the wrong things. Intelligence is getting 10x cheaper every year, and the…”

“Everyone is looking at the roadblocks to AI.. not enough energy, not enough data centres, not enough chips.. and assuming this is all going to be slow. It isnt. All of that compute gets built in 27. By 28, 29 we have electricity at scale, robots at scale, new chips.. at that point the price of everything will collapse. Thats The Economic Singularity.. the point where intelligence and labour get so cheap and abunda…”

“Most agents wont care which chain they're on. @0xvati and I had a great chat about this recently Humans pick chains a bit like football teams.. philosophy, ideology, community. But agents dont give a crap about any of that. As Arpan put it, a rational agent will execute on any chain that is, say, 10 milliseconds faster. Play it forward and the chains end up competing on efficiency for machine users. Chea faster ra…”

“Demographics, debt, debasement. Three words that drive everything. It starts with an aging population. Fewer workers means slower growth, so governments borrow to keep the economy moving. The debt keeps growing because the demographics leave them no other option. That debt was never going to be paid back. So it gets managed instead.. by debasing the currency. More money created every year, each unit worth a little…”

“Most stuff in crypto goes to zero because of adoption.. A network gets more useful as more people use it, and that usefulness pulls in the next wave of users. Persistent attention keeps that loop running long enough to matter. But we don't see that persistence in many things. I wrote up my full thoughts on this today: why most chains die, and how to weed out the survivors. As ever, please enjoy!”

“Spoke at Sui Basecamp in Singapore about where all of this is going.. Once you have an infinite population of economic actors, all running on compute that keeps getting more efficient, GDP growth goes crazy. The whole GDP formula blows up. By the mid-2030s its not even a measure we care about anymore. Everything collapses into one formula.. intelligence per unit of energy. Markets, blockchain, geopolitics, politic…”

“The cost of intelligence is collapsing. The cost of energy is collapsing. The cost of a token, the cost of a watt, the amount of intelligence you get out of every unit of energy.. all of it is falling at once. And cheaper is what makes the whole thing go exponential. Jevons paradox.. make something cheaper and the world finds a thousand new uses for it. Every time intelligence gets chea we use more of it, which pa…”

“The next crypto cycle won't be driven by humans. It'll be driven by billions of AI agents transacting 24/7. I sat down with @cryptomanran to explore why this is the first real bull market, and why the convergence of AI and blockchain is the bigger opportunity. As ever, please enjoy!”