Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, posted on X today, October 21, that the market is currently "measuring the wrong things" when assessing economic performance. He highlighted the impact of artificial intelligence, stating, "Intelligence is getting 10x cheaper every year, and the gains are going to margins, not jobs." Pal pointed to Amazon as an example, noting its revenue is up 53% since 2021 with a flat headcount, indicating significant productivity gains.
Pal's comments come as AI continues to dominate market discussions. Recent Gokhshtein Media coverage includes Nvidia's DSX Pod, which extends its AI moat, and Meta's rally driven by AI bets. Ray Dalio recently warned of AI concentration risk, emphasizing the importance of bond markets. Ondo also launched an OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual product, though it barred U.S. traders. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 63, indicating a state of Greed among digital asset investors.
Pal's view suggests that traditional economic metrics may not fully capture the profound shifts driven by AI. He argues that this phenomenon, which he calls "The New Macro," has significant implications for growth, demographics, liquidity, and markets. Investors should consider how AI-driven productivity gains are impacting corporate margins and the broader economy, rather than focusing solely on employment figures, which Pal believes will not reflect the full picture of economic progress.
