inflation

Minneapolis Fed President signals persistent core inflation across all sectors as rate futures price 67% chance of 4.00%-4.25% terminal rate by end of 2026

National dwelling values dropped 0.9 percent in August, with Sydney down 7.1 percent since February as markets price in further Reserve Bank tightening

Record diesel prices are forcing businesses to absorb $35 million-plus in added costs, creating a structural inflation problem that interest rate hikes cannot solve.

A prominent crypto analyst argues that fiscal discipline in the U.S. would undermine Bitcoin's appeal, challenging the popular debasement trade narrative.

The Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time in 31 years, but dovish guidance and internal dissent sent the yen lower as traders priced a slower tightening cycle.

ExxonMobil's 275,000 barrel-per-day facility went offline Monday as Midwest refining runs near 98 percent utilization, leaving no slack for unplanned disruptions.

Survey shows households expect 3.2% annual inflation over next 12 months, up from 2.8% last quarter, threatening central bank's price-stability anchor

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25 percent, but two dissenting votes and inflation data below forecasts drove the yen weaker, signaling market skepticism about sustained tightening.

The quarter-point hike steepens the short end of the yield curve as bond traders reprice forward rate expectations against persistent inflation above 2 percent.

The dollar index fell to 100.20 after the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its hiking cycle, while markets price in more rate increases than policymakers project

The 10-year Treasury yield declined three basis points to 4.99% following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate increase, ending an eight-day rally in long-end yields.

Fundstrat's chief researcher argues bearish sentiment and fading inflation create conditions for a sharp S&P 500 rebound to 8,000-plus, with the current pullback strengthening rather than derailing the case.

Interest rate swaps now price 90 basis points of ECB increases by December 2027, with Bank of England showing similar tightening expectations as oil climbs above $100.

Brent crude jumped 3% to $107 on Middle East supply disruptions, forcing bond traders to reprice terminal rate expectations and duration risk.

Reserve Bank of India's aggressive cash absorption through note sales pushes yields higher across the curve as inflation risks mount ahead of potential rate hikes.

Costco nearly doubled the price of Kirkland Signature synthetic motor oil to $57.99 per 10-quart case and imposed purchase limits, signaling how tight global lubricant supplies have become.

The closure of Saudi Arabia's 7 million barrel-per-day East-West pipeline after attacks has sent Brent crude toward $108, disrupting a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.

The State Bank of Pakistan kept its benchmark rate unchanged for a third straight meeting, holding steady despite inflation at 11.15 percent in August.

LME copper futures fell 0.6 percent on Fed tightening expectations, with the spot-to-three-month spread signaling a sharp reversal in physical market tightness.

Retail inflation accelerated above the RBI's 4 percent target, with food prices surging 5.95 percent year-over-year and oil risks intensifying the case for a policy tightening next month.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confronts a rate decision that could either antagonize President Trump or signal market capitulation on inflation control.

Bank of Japan official Koji Nakamura warns that supply-driven inflation cannot be treated as transitory, signaling the central bank's readiness to keep raising rates.

Latvia's central bank governor says further gradual tightening likely as eurozone inflation holds at 3.3% and output gap narrows, raising wage-growth risks.

A 32-basis-point quarter rally reflects market conviction that stabilizing inflation and cooling labor data will keep the central bank on hold

The benchmark yield reached its highest level since November 2023 as wholesale inflation and crude oil above $100 per barrel push rates higher, with strategists warning of sustained upward pressure.

Oil above $100 and natural gas at €60/MWh squeeze central banks between inflation containment and growth concerns, with the ECB seen raising rates and the BoE holding through 2026.

WTI crude jumped above $100 and August PPI beat expectations, pushing Treasury yields to their highest level since 2023 and forcing markets to price in renewed Fed tightening risk

University of Michigan index drops 7.5% as gasoline prices and trade tensions push near-term inflation expectations to highest level since February, pressuring short-end yields

Alight shares dropped 19 percent this week to a $318 million market cap as shrinking margins and weakening project revenue compound macro pressure from rising Treasury yields and oil prices.

Stock futures and Treasuries rallied on cooler inflation data, but CME FedWatch pricing shows persistent expectations for Fed tightening next week

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declared inflation a monetary policy choice and said the FOMC is unanimously committed to price stability, prompting bond markets to reprice rate-cut odds lower

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.9708%, driven by Brent crude above $108 and Middle East supply disruptions that signal sustained inflation headwinds.

S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent and Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1 percent as producer inflation exceeded forecasts and crude topped $100, driving CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike to nearly 70 percent.

Producer prices jumped 0.4% in August as prediction markets price in a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting; Friday's CPI report will be decisive.

Bank of Japan cites sustained input cost inflation driven by oil, AI demand and weak yen; 556 firms filed inflation-related bankruptcies in first half of 2026

President Javier Milei holds firm on fiscal cuts despite inflation rebounding and real wages falling, testing public patience with his economic overhaul

Central bank raises deposit rate for second time this year, projecting inflation will remain well above its 2% target through 2027 as Middle East conflict sustains oil and gas pressures.

The central bank kept all three rates unchanged as inflation holds near its 2 percent target, with no forward guidance on future moves.

Bid-to-cover ratios across Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have fallen to multi-year lows, signaling a structural shift in investor demand amid rising global rates.

Spot gold at $4,409.68 reflects conflicting pressures: 60 percent Fed rate-hike odds against dollar weakness to multi-month lows versus the yen.

The U.S. Treasury's debt repurchase operation disappoints bond markets, with the 10-year yield hitting a three-year high as investors signal the intervention was too small.

Non-revolving credit jumped $15.3 billion in the largest monthly gain in three years, signaling sustained releveraging despite elevated 22.15% card rates.

The STOXX 600 dropped 0.6 percent to 646.1 points as Novartis shares plunged 10.2 percent following failed drug trials and Brent crude climbed near $98.50 a barrel.

Industrial metal extends four-day rally as futures curve steepens into backwardation, signaling immediate supply deficit.

A surge in AI infrastructure investment is straining Australia's labor and energy supplies, leaving the central bank little room to cut rates despite moderating inflation.

Macro traders project sustained financing demand from hyperscaler infrastructure will keep mid and long-dated bonds under pressure.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding forecasts and lifting market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed increase at the Sept. 16-17 meeting to 60 percent

Algorithm Research CEO Ketaki Sharma argues inflation remains the dominant variable in Fed policy, contradicting Chair Kevin Warsh's thesis that productivity gains justify rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's confidence in disinflation trends sent rate-hold odds to 51.6%, a sharp pivot from Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole warning that policy may need more tightening.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on easing pricing pressures cut bond traders' September rate-hike probability to 50 percent, triggering a broad risk-on rally across equities, Bitcoin and commodities.