Yield Curve

Minneapolis Fed President signals additional tightening as he challenges assumptions about policy restrictiveness and elevated neutral rate

A large institutional options trade and surge in convexity hedging accelerate Treasury losses, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.35%—its highest since 2007.

May's headline CPI miss versus RBA forecasts removes August rate hike pricing, but sticky core inflation keeps long-end risk premium intact.

New York Fed President Williams said the U.S. economy shows strong momentum and expects inflation to slow to just above two percent next year from 3.5 percent this year.

Australia's central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year, citing broadening Middle East conflict and AI demand as drivers of price pressures.

WTI crude jumped above $100 and August PPI beat expectations, pushing Treasury yields to their highest level since 2023 and forcing markets to price in renewed Fed tightening risk

University of Michigan index drops 7.5% as gasoline prices and trade tensions push near-term inflation expectations to highest level since February, pressuring short-end yields

U.S. Treasury launches expanded debt repurchase program targeting 10-year-plus securities, signaling active management of long-end supply and duration risk.

Treasury expands buyback program targeting the 10-to-30-year curve after long-bond selloff compresses duration demand.

Tech giant's first UK pound bond sale expands its multi-currency funding for AI infrastructure, joining record $80 billion annual borrowing.

Macro traders project sustained financing demand from hyperscaler infrastructure will keep mid and long-dated bonds under pressure.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller downplayed August payrolls data, positioning next week's consumer price report as the deciding factor for the central bank's September rate decision.

Italian 10-year yields rose five basis points on Aug. 31, widening the Italy-Germany spread as broader European sovereign debt markets repriced growth and inflation expectations.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said broad financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation momentum is insufficient to justify rate cuts, keeping markets priced for higher-for-longer rates.

Savings rate hits 2.6%, real after-tax income down over 1% annually, and credit card delinquencies reach 2011 levels, signaling potential consumer spending slowdown.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's interventions have steepened the yield curve and sharpened focus on Federal Reserve Vice Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks.

Treasury expands debt repurchases, 30-year yield falls to 5.18 percent, and swap markets confirm the intervention is gaining traction

Aug. 20 intervention targets duration compression at long end of curve as yields near two-decade peaks

The Fed's shift to reinvest agency MBS paydowns into MBS rather than Treasuries drove Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae current coupon prices up 12 index points on Sept. 21, 2011

Aegon Asset Management maintains a yield-curve steepener position, betting Fed cuts in 2026 will compress short-end rates while long-term yields hold or rise, despite Treasury efforts to cap borrowing costs.

The 10-year yield fell to 4.708% Tuesday ahead of the 20-year auction, but inflation breakevens hardened and geopolitical uncertainty left the curve vulnerable to fresh selling.

France's long-end borrowing costs surged Wednesday as fiscal concerns widened the spread over German bunds, while oil's fourth straight gain kept inflation pressure on duration-heavy portfolios.

BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.

The firm's five-year assumptions target U.S. corporate profit growth seen in only 15 percent of historical periods, paired with a strategic underweight to developed market sovereign debt.

The Treasury is set to sell $16 billion in 20-year debt Wednesday with when-issued yields at 5.27 percent — the highest for that tenor since its 2020 reintroduction.

Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.

An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.

Two rounds of intervention have failed to hold the line; the Treasury-JGB spread is the structural force Tokyo cannot unilaterally close.

Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.

Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.

Former Fed official Alberto Musalem says the bond market's selloff reflects eroding confidence in the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation target.

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell six points in July, its third straight monthly decline, as 7.15 percent mortgage rates erode demand and compress builder margins.

Unit labor costs are outpacing output gains by 3.1 percentage points, reinforcing expectations for a Fed hold at the Sept. 18 meeting.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.

An economy engineered to resist downturns keeps inflation sticky and rates high, compounding capital losses for fixed-income portfolios holding long-dated assets.

Futures now price a 68 percent probability the first Fed cut comes no earlier than March 2027, up from 45 percent three months ago, as sticky inflation grinds down easing bets

The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.

Manufacturing output and new orders expanded for a third straight month, giving the Bank of Japan firmer ground to steepen the JGB curve.

Singapore's sovereign wealth fund recorded its first negative real return in public history, hit by duration losses in fixed income and late-cycle equity pressure.

The yen's broad decline against major trading partners reflects sustained pressure from global interest rate differentials and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy stance.

The Netherlands' strong economy despite the developed world's shortest work week indicates high productivity gains that could reduce ECB rate cut expectations

Three-day FTA discussions may create disinflationary forces that alter central bank policy space and duration risk calculations

President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee immediately shifts market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance

White House confirms no immediate call planned between Trump and Taiwan president, easing bond market tensions

Persistent inversion between two-year and 10-year Treasuries challenges fixed-income assumptions as Fed easing expectations fade

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino advocates for unified global monetary policy approach, citing financial stability risks from current divergences

The tech giant's record offering, the largest by a foreign issuer in Japan, shows corporations locking in low-cost funding as rate differentials widen

Institutional flows target Asian markets as inverted U.S. yield curve and elevated Treasury duration risk prompt portfolio rebalancing

Structural markups from financial and supply chain intermediaries keep inflation elevated, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive policy

Wage growth exceeds consensus estimates and BOJ policy rate, reinforcing market expectations for further policy normalization