Interest Rates

Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31

Investors slash U.S. and U.K. rate-increase expectations on softer economic data, but long-duration Treasury yields climb as real-money buyers grow selective on entry points

Unemployment rose above consensus, signaling the central bank will pause rate action at its September meeting and ending a tightening cycle.

Low inflation and coal-heavy energy mix let Beijing hold rates steady while peers hike, pulling capital from other emerging markets.

BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.

The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.

The NAHB index beat a forecast of 33 but has not crossed 50 in more than two years, with diesel prices up nearly 50 percent driving material costs higher.

Spot gold crossed $4,400 per ounce in European trading as weak U.S. retail and sentiment data pushed FOMC rate hike odds to their lowest in months.

July's 0.6 percent retail sales decline and soft inflation data cut September rate-hike probability nearly in half in a week, pushing bullion to a two-week high.

Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.

Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.

A shift in U.S. rate expectations and AI-driven growth optimism pushed EM equities and local currencies higher Friday, extending a week of broad gains.

An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.

U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.

Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.

Elevated corporate goods prices and a weak yen are pushing the Bank of Japan toward a September rate increase, analysts say

National property values fell 0.7 percent in July, their steepest monthly decline in two and a half years, as weakness spread from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane and Adelaide.

RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent says softening housing market is tightening financial conditions after three rate hikes and tax policy changes.

Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent face parliamentary and media scrutiny later this week as the Australian dollar slips after six straight weeks of gains.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.

Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

The benchmark yield jumped 10 basis points to its highest level since 2022, with Bank Indonesia expected to tighten further next week to arrest rupiah weakness.

The yen has surrendered nearly half its intervention-driven gains; the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady but left the door open to further hikes.

The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.

Spot gold rose past $4,250 per ounce after July payrolls fell 23,000, slashing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 41.9 percent.

Economists forecast a second straight quarter of expansion driven by services and manufacturing stockpiling, though June activity is expected to have slipped.

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 forecast, but economists say the labor market's stability supports the Fed's current rate posture.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, sustaining the yield floor for tokenized Treasuries and tightening the capital-flow competition against DeFi lending pools.

The data center giant targets investment-grade buyers as credit spreads on technology infrastructure debt widen and duration risk mounts.

Japan's central bank held its policy rate and upgraded its growth outlook as investors, including Amundi Japan's Hiromi Ishihara, await concrete inflation and wage signals.

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell six points in July, its third straight monthly decline, as 7.15 percent mortgage rates erode demand and compress builder margins.

ING strategists say a prolonged Fed pause signals economic weakness, eroding the dollar's carry appeal and dampening crude demand.

Eighteen straight months above the 2 percent target have the Bank of Japan set to revise its inflation outlook higher and flag further tightening.

Bond markets are repricing a 25-basis-point hike at the July 31 Fed meeting after a sharp jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns across duration-sensitive portfolios.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.

Futures now price a 68 percent probability the first Fed cut comes no earlier than March 2027, up from 45 percent three months ago, as sticky inflation grinds down easing bets

Moscow shifts toward growth stimulus, accepting higher inflation risk as Ukrainian drone attacks erode refining capacity and supply chains.

The cable operator offers cash and new 10-year notes for bonds maturing 2027–2030, cutting near-term refinancing risk as higher-for-longer rates persist

The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.

Crude oil futures gained 2.1 percent, driving a hawkish repricing in bond markets and pushing the two-year Treasury yield up seven basis points to 4.96 percent.

Singapore's sovereign wealth fund recorded its first negative real return in public history, hit by duration losses in fixed income and late-cycle equity pressure.

The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 4.00 percent for a second straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde leaving the door open to additional tightening.

The yen's broad decline against major trading partners reflects sustained pressure from global interest rate differentials and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy stance.

A sustained 5 percent 10-year Treasury yield raises the cost of capital for speculative AI companies, echoing past rate cycles that crippled highly leveraged sectors.

May CPI rose 0.5 percent, above forecasts, pushing back rate cut expectations and hitting growth stocks while defensive plays outperform

President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee immediately shifts market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance

High-growth technology shares face pressure as rising Treasury yields increase discount rates for future earnings

April data shows new home price drops eased for a third consecutive month, offering relief to global credit markets exposed to developer debt