Interest Rates

Treasury yields hit 25-year highs as persistent inflation and AI capex drive borrowing costs up, creating a policy conflict between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.

Alight shares dropped 19 percent this week to a $318 million market cap as shrinking margins and weakening project revenue compound macro pressure from rising Treasury yields and oil prices.

S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent and Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.1 percent as producer inflation exceeded forecasts and crude topped $100, driving CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike to nearly 70 percent.

Producer prices jumped 0.4% in August as prediction markets price in a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting; Friday's CPI report will be decisive.

Bank of Japan cites sustained input cost inflation driven by oil, AI demand and weak yen; 556 firms filed inflation-related bankruptcies in first half of 2026

Central bank raises deposit rate for second time this year, projecting inflation will remain well above its 2% target through 2027 as Middle East conflict sustains oil and gas pressures.

The central bank kept all three rates unchanged as inflation holds near its 2 percent target, with no forward guidance on future moves.

The European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged, with President Christine Lagarde's 3 p.m. CET press conference expected to clarify the Council's medium-term inflation strategy.

Bid-to-cover ratios across Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have fallen to multi-year lows, signaling a structural shift in investor demand amid rising global rates.

Non-revolving credit jumped $15.3 billion in the largest monthly gain in three years, signaling sustained releveraging despite elevated 22.15% card rates.

Short-end Treasury surge to fresh daily highs reflects market repricing of Fed tightening odds; 10-year breaks 4.79%

Yield differential between Australia and New Zealand widens as markets price RBA tightening against RBNZ pause, lifting Australian fixed-income assets and the currency to 13-year highs.

Westpac's chief economist reverses previous expectations, now forecasting a 25 basis point increase to 4.6% as strong incomes and tech-driven capital spending keep inflation pressures elevated.

UBS revises its 2026 outlook to two 25 basis point rate increases—September and December—citing stronger August jobs data and hawkish Fed communication.

A surge in AI infrastructure investment is straining Australia's labor and energy supplies, leaving the central bank little room to cut rates despite moderating inflation.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding forecasts and lifting market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed increase at the Sept. 16-17 meeting to 60 percent

Algorithm Research CEO Ketaki Sharma argues inflation remains the dominant variable in Fed policy, contradicting Chair Kevin Warsh's thesis that productivity gains justify rate cuts.

August's 162,000 job additions—triple the consensus forecast—flipped Fed futures pricing and erased Bitcoin's $82,240 four-month high in minutes.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's confidence in disinflation trends sent rate-hold odds to 51.6%, a sharp pivot from Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole warning that policy may need more tightening.

Nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August, triple economist estimates, pushing Fed rate hike probability up from 49.4% to 58% and sending Treasury yields higher

Forex inflows push banking system cash to all-time high, compressing overnight rates and forcing central bank into reverse repo operations

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller downplayed August payrolls data, positioning next week's consumer price report as the deciding factor for the central bank's September rate decision.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on easing pricing pressures cut bond traders' September rate-hike probability to 50 percent, triggering a broad risk-on rally across equities, Bitcoin and commodities.

When the 10-year yield moves 100 basis points, a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon can lose $80 or more—a stark reminder that duration risk is the bond market's core sensitivity.

Bank Negara Malaysia's edited policy statement and 25 basis points of tightening priced into ringgit swaps over 12 months suggest the pause is nearing its end.

Middle East tensions pushed crude higher, stoking inflation concerns and forcing the bond market to reprice Fed expectations upward, dragging gold lower as yield-bearing Treasuries regain relative appeal.

Bund and OAT futures plunge to record lows as term premium surges; ECB rate hike looms over energy-strained fiscal backdrop.

Benchmark 10-year yield crosses 5.10% on hotter-than-expected July inflation; back-end curve pricing sustained higher-rate environment

Two-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.34% as markets repriced Fed policy; MSCI emerging-market index fell 1.4%, its worst day since Aug. 24

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on Friday shifted bond market pricing sharply toward a September rate increase, with two-year Treasury yields jumping 13 basis points.

Crude surged on Middle East supply fears while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments pushed markets to price in a near-term rate increase, steepening the front end of the yield curve.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that persistent inflation may force a rate increase, pushing September hike probability to 60% from 35% overnight

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation comments at the Central Bank Symposium drove spot gold down 0.5 percent, signaling markets now price in near-term rate increases.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann voted for a 0.25 percentage point rate increase, citing household inflation expectations at 4 percent—double the central bank's target.

The resources conglomerate plans a Rs 10 billion issue to refinance debt as companies lock in borrowing costs ahead of expected RBI tightening.

Australian household consumption rose for a third consecutive month, pushing 3-year bond futures down 7 ticks as markets fully price a Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase by December.

New Fed chair's refusal to signal rate path leaves bond traders searching for clues as 10-year yields test 2007 highs.

Treasury expands debt repurchases, 30-year yield falls to 5.18 percent, and swap markets confirm the intervention is gaining traction

Chinese lenders are now benchmarking bond issuance to the overnight funding rate, confirming the PBOC's June 17 overhaul is reshaping the world's second-largest bond market from the ground up.

The sharpest FOMC dissent in years clusters among rotating bank presidents, not Governors—the structural composition that shapes consensus argues against sustained rate hikes.

The quarterly budget stayed at $38 billion while per-operation ceilings doubled, exposing the gap between what buybacks can accomplish and what markets assumed.

Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31

Investors slash U.S. and U.K. rate-increase expectations on softer economic data, but long-duration Treasury yields climb as real-money buyers grow selective on entry points

Unemployment rose above consensus, signaling the central bank will pause rate action at its September meeting and ending a tightening cycle.

Low inflation and coal-heavy energy mix let Beijing hold rates steady while peers hike, pulling capital from other emerging markets.

BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.

The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.

The NAHB index beat a forecast of 33 but has not crossed 50 in more than two years, with diesel prices up nearly 50 percent driving material costs higher.

Spot gold crossed $4,400 per ounce in European trading as weak U.S. retail and sentiment data pushed FOMC rate hike odds to their lowest in months.

July's 0.6 percent retail sales decline and soft inflation data cut September rate-hike probability nearly in half in a week, pushing bullion to a two-week high.