Federal Reserve

U.S. bond markets swung sharply this week between employment-driven rallies and yield curve steepening, with traders parsing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's policy direction amid persistent inflation concerns.

The rupee held at 95.68 per dollar after Reserve Bank of India intervention, while longer-dated U.S. debt yields surged on mixed Fed signals and persistent oil volatility.

The Fed's shift to reinvest agency MBS paydowns into MBS rather than Treasuries drove Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae current coupon prices up 12 index points on Sept. 21, 2011

Investors slash U.S. and U.K. rate-increase expectations on softer economic data, but long-duration Treasury yields climb as real-money buyers grow selective on entry points

Aegon Asset Management maintains a yield-curve steepener position, betting Fed cuts in 2026 will compress short-end rates while long-term yields hold or rise, despite Treasury efforts to cap borrowing costs.

The 10-year yield fell to 4.708% Tuesday ahead of the 20-year auction, but inflation breakevens hardened and geopolitical uncertainty left the curve vulnerable to fresh selling.

The U.S. 2-year yield at 4.206% reveals how much Asia's tech rally depends on cheap money—and how quickly that math breaks down.

The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.

The NAHB index beat a forecast of 33 but has not crossed 50 in more than two years, with diesel prices up nearly 50 percent driving material costs higher.

Morgan Stanley estimates leveraged basis positions have shrunk more than $200 billion, with a Goldman desk chief saying clients call the trade 'dead.'

Brent crude settled at $87.72 Monday as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty returned, pulling the S&P 500 4.53 points below Friday's all-time high.

Spot gold crossed $4,400 per ounce in European trading as weak U.S. retail and sentiment data pushed FOMC rate hike odds to their lowest in months.

Lori Calvasina's equity strategy team finds pricing power shifting away from businesses for the first time since the pandemic, with super core inflation at 3.5 percent year-over-year.

The firm's five-year assumptions target U.S. corporate profit growth seen in only 15 percent of historical periods, paired with a strategic underweight to developed market sovereign debt.

July's 0.6 percent retail sales decline and soft inflation data cut September rate-hike probability nearly in half in a week, pushing bullion to a two-week high.

Strategists say the baht's post-hold gain will fade as the Bank of Thailand's dovish bias and rising oil prices sustain structural pressure on the currency.

The Treasury is set to sell $16 billion in 20-year debt Wednesday with when-issued yields at 5.27 percent — the highest for that tenor since its 2020 reintroduction.

Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.

The National Association of Realtors puts the July median at $440,600, up 1.8 percent year-over-year, extending 36 straight months of record-level prices.

The Federal Reserve's H.8 statistical release, published Fridays by 4:15 p.m. Eastern, covers assets and liabilities across domestically chartered and foreign-related U.S. banks.

Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.

A shift in U.S. rate expectations and AI-driven growth optimism pushed EM equities and local currencies higher Friday, extending a week of broad gains.

The 1-week 25-delta skew fell to roughly 4% from elevated June levels as large traders accumulate $70,000 strike calls ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

Two rounds of intervention have failed to hold the line; the Treasury-JGB spread is the structural force Tokyo cannot unilaterally close.

U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.

Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.

Core inflation held at 2.5 percent while employers shed 23,000 jobs and real wages fell 0.2 percent, shifting Fed rate expectations toward a September pause.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Two consecutive monthly declines in auto insurance costs provided a rare deflationary impulse in services, even as annual CPI held at 3.4 percent.

Emerging market equities rose in July as cooler U.S. CPI data shifted Federal Reserve rate expectations, ending two months of capital outflows.

Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

Traders shift to derivatives for yen exposure before Wednesday's inflation data as U.S.-Iran deal uncertainty keeps currency and energy markets on edge.

Investors moved into riskier bond segments last month even as New York Fed data showed consumer credit card debt at a record $1.26 trillion.

Economists project a 0.1 percent monthly CPI gain for July and 3.4 percent year-over-year, enough to keep the short end of the yield curve on edge.

U.S. consumers drove auto, credit card and home equity balances higher in the second quarter even as the overall delinquency rate dipped, the New York Fed said.

Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.

Mutual funds and households now drive Treasury demand, pushing long-maturity yields to multi-decade peaks as inflation credibility concerns mount.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced forward guidance is generating market uncertainty, prompting analysts to cite Canada's post-2008 central bank policy as a historical parallel.

The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.

Bullion gained 3.6 percent over two sessions, lifted by Chinese ETF inflows and technical buying, with July CPI data due Wednesday.

U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's yen intervention and signals of potential long-bond sale reductions aim to pull U.S. long-term rates off a 19-year high.

Spot gold rose past $4,250 per ounce after July payrolls fell 23,000, slashing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 41.9 percent.

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 forecast, but economists say the labor market's stability supports the Fed's current rate posture.

Copper steadied after six weeks of gains while traders weighed tightening supply, a 44 percent Fed hike probability and geopolitical risk in Middle East shipping lanes.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent on declining labor force participation, not stronger hiring.

The July CPI report on Aug. 12 and Nvidia's Q2 earnings on Aug. 26 will shape rate expectations and AI spending, pressuring native DeFi yields against tokenized Treasuries.

The White House sent Cook a letter saying it is considering her removal and giving her three weeks to respond to unproven mortgage fraud allegations.

The White House sent Fed Governor Lisa Cook a letter demanding she respond within three weeks to unproven mortgage fraud allegations — a step toward removal.