Tag
fixed income
50 articles
Economists' Rate Forecasts Miss Year After Year — The Philadelphia Fed Data Shows Why
Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.
Bond Correlations Are Breaking Down—Making Fixed Income Harder to Trade
AlphaSimplex's Kathryn Kaminski says bonds now respond to geopolitical risk and inflation rather than U.S. growth data, stripping traders of their traditional navigation tools.
BOJ Holds at 1% but Warns Inflation Will Exceed 2% Target — Yen Rallies to 157.96
An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.
Used Car Prices Rise Faster Than Bitcoin as Energy Supply Risks Mount
Jim Bianco flags 'bubblicious' used car inflation outpacing Bitcoin while Vance's Ukraine tanker request and North Sea well closures tighten the crude outlook.
UK Buyer Enquiries Fall to August 2023 Lows as London Leads Downturn
A RICS survey shows UK buyer enquiries and agreed sales dropped to their lowest since August 2023, with London and East Anglia seeing the sharpest declines.
Hormuz Closure Persists, Lifting Brent Near $85 — WTI Up 5% to $82.13
Crude advances for a sixth session as U.S.-Iran talks over Strait traffic collapse, sustaining supply shocks that extend duration risk across fixed-income portfolios
Motor Vehicle Insurance Falls 0.3% in July, Pulling Headline CPI to 0.1% Monthly Gain
Two consecutive monthly declines in auto insurance costs provided a rare deflationary impulse in services, even as annual CPI held at 3.4 percent.
ABN Amro Q1 Net Income Beats All Estimates at €692M; Shares Rise 7.9 Percent
The Dutch bank posted a 20 percent jump in fee income and raised its revenue outlook, sending shares to their highest single-session gain in months.
July Credit Inflows Hit $2.3 Billion as U.S. Consumer Debt Climbs to $1.26 Trillion
Investors moved into riskier bond segments last month even as New York Fed data showed consumer credit card debt at a record $1.26 trillion.
Bond Market Flags Systemic Risk in Inflation-Fueled Circular Financing
Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.
Gold Tops $4,400 Ahead of CPI Report That Could Change Fed Rate Path
Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.
Strategy's STRC Preferred Stock Offers 11.5% Yield, Targets $300T Fixed Income Market
The Bitcoin-backed preferred stock bridges traditional fixed income with digital assets, drawing $50 million from Strive.
IBM Returns to Canadian Bond Market After 14 Years as Maple Note Issuance Hits Record
International Business Machines Corp. is offering four- and eight-year Canadian dollar notes, its first such issuance since 2012, as foreign firms drive record Maple note volume.
Sugar Futures Hit 5.25-Year Lows as India, Brazil Flood Global Supply
StoneX projects a 2.9 million metric ton surplus for 2025-26, while French trader Sucres et Denrees says data gaps obscure the full extent of oversupply.
RBC Reopens $10 Billion High-Yield Fund After Two-Year Cap
RBC Global Asset Management reopened its Phillips, Hager & North High Yield Bond Fund to new investors Aug. 6, 2026, citing attractive opportunities in the high-yield debt market
U.S. Investment-Grade Bond Issuance Hits $18 Billion, Most in Seven Months
Nineteen firms tapped the U.S. corporate debt market Monday, marking the largest single-day issuance since April 30 as companies lock in funding.
Dutch Four-Day Week, Rising Sick Leave Tighten Labor Supply Outlook
Shorter work weeks and higher absenteeism in the Netherlands are compressing aggregate labor input, with direct implications for potential GDP and long-end bond yields.
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.23%, a 19-Year High, as Fiscal Fears Deepen
Global bond and currency investors are debating a 'Sell America' trade after recent Washington policy decisions drove long-dated U.S. yields to levels last seen in 2006.
BP Sells North Sea Assets to Cut Debt; West Ham's £100M Transfer Loan Frozen
BP moves to shed UK oil, gas and biogas holdings as CEO Meg O'Neill targets faster debt reduction; a legal dispute over West Ham's ownership blocks £100 million in transfer funds.
Equinix Seeks $3 Billion in Bonds as AI Debt Spreads Widen
The data center giant targets investment-grade buyers as credit spreads on technology infrastructure debt widen and duration risk mounts.
Foreign Funds Skip Nigeria's 66 Percent Equity Rally, Chase Bond Yields Instead
International institutional investors bypassed Nigeria's world-leading stock market this year, directing capital into sovereign debt drawn by high yields across the curve.
Two Saudi Tankers Go Dark in Red Sea, Lifting Oil Supply Risk
The vessels carrying crude for India disabled their AIS transponders to avoid detection in the high-risk waterway, pushing global freight insurance costs higher.
Builder Confidence Falls to 42 as Home Prices Drop 1.2 Percent
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell six points in July, its third straight monthly decline, as 7.15 percent mortgage rates erode demand and compress builder margins.
Deutsche Bank Q2 Fixed-Income Revenue Hits Record €2.6 Billion, Q3 Momentum Holds
CFO Raja Akram said July trading remained strong after a 16 percent Q2 revenue surge beat analyst estimates and outpaced most U.S. rivals.
Hong Kong Tech Shorts Unwind as Korea Correlation Flips Positive
Global macro funds are closing short positions in Hong Kong tech after the 60-day rolling correlation with South Korean chip stocks swung from -0.35 to +0.15, breaking the pair trade thesis.
China Centralizes Iron Ore Buying, Putting Miners' Margins at Risk
Beijing's state-backed CMRG now controls an estimated 70 percent of China's iron ore imports, shifting pricing power away from Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale.
Mexico Q2 GDP Estimated at 2.8% Annualized — Manufacturing, Consumption Drive Rebound
Preliminary data shows Mexico's economy accelerating sharply from Q1's 0.5% pace, with Mbono spreads tightening and Banxico holding rates at 11% amid sticky inflation
Macquarie Sees Oil Glut Risk as Iran Deal Pressure Mounts Before Midterms
Analysts say Washington faces a 100-day political window to de-escalate the Iran conflict, a move that could flood markets with sidelined crude.
China Industrial Profits Rise 6.8 Percent as Export Strength Masks Weak Domestic Demand
Year-to-date profit growth slowed from 8.5 percent in May as property sector stress and soft consumer spending compressed margins despite a 7.5 percent surge in June exports.
WTI Crude Drop Steepens Yield Curve, Lifts December Cut Odds to 58%
Falling oil futures are feeding disinflationary expectations, pulling the two-year Treasury yield down 10 basis points and widening the 2s/10s spread to negative 47 basis points.
China's 320 Million Gig Workers Distort Labor Data, Cloud PBOC Policy
With nearly half its workforce now in informal roles, China faces mounting challenges to economic modeling, household demand and sovereign bond pricing
Wage-Productivity Gap at Widest Since Q4 2023 Drives Two-Year Yield to 4.98%
Unit labor costs are outpacing output gains by 3.1 percentage points, reinforcing expectations for a Fed hold at the Sept. 18 meeting.
Finland, Spain Unemployment Pressures ECB; Japan Tightness Pushes BoJ Toward Exit
Labor market divergence between the eurozone's weakest economies and Japan is forcing the ECB and Bank of Japan onto opposite policy trajectories.
Resilience Policy Extends Duration Risk as Long-End Yields Stay Elevated
An economy engineered to resist downturns keeps inflation sticky and rates high, compounding capital losses for fixed-income portfolios holding long-dated assets.
Fed Cut Odds Collapse as Resilience Narrative Locks In Higher-for-Longer Rates
Futures now price a 68 percent probability the first Fed cut comes no earlier than March 2027, up from 45 percent three months ago, as sticky inflation grinds down easing bets
Charter Launches $3 Billion Debt Exchange to Push Out Maturities
The cable operator offers cash and new 10-year notes for bonds maturing 2027–2030, cutting near-term refinancing risk as higher-for-longer rates persist
Fed Drops Forward Guidance, Two-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 8 Basis Points
The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.
Japan Factory PMI Hits 52.3 in July, Sharpens Case for BoJ Policy Shift
Manufacturing output and new orders expanded for a third straight month, giving the Bank of Japan firmer ground to steepen the JGB curve.
GIC Posts First Negative Real Return on Record: -0.3% Over Five Years
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund recorded its first negative real return in public history, hit by duration losses in fixed income and late-cycle equity pressure.
China's 320 Million Gig Workers Strain Consumption and Monetary Policy
Nearly half of China's labor force now operates without contracts or benefits, complicating Beijing's push for consumption-led growth and the PBOC's price stability mandate.
Indonesia's JCI Nears Bull Market as Fitch Affirms BBB Rating
The Jakarta Composite Index rose 1.7 percent, pushing its year-to-date gain to 19.5 percent, as Fitch maintained Indonesia's investment-grade sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook.
Dutch 32-Hour Week Drives Eurozone Yields Higher as Productivity Gains Shift ECB Outlook
The Netherlands' strong economy despite the developed world's shortest work week indicates high productivity gains that could reduce ECB rate cut expectations
2s10s Curve Inversion Deepens to 68 Basis Points as Steepening Bets Fail
Persistent inversion between two-year and 10-year Treasuries challenges fixed-income assumptions as Fed easing expectations fade
EM Bond Spreads Tighten as Risk Appetite Returns on Peace Deal Hopes
Emerging market sovereign debt spreads compressed this week as geopolitical risk premiums declined across fixed income portfolios
IEA Ready for Oil Release After Past Draw Depleted 20% of Strategic Stocks
Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency stands prepared to coordinate additional strategic petroleum reserve releases if member nations request action
China Home Price Declines Slow Third Month as Developer Spreads Compress
April data shows new home price drops eased for a third consecutive month, offering relief to global credit markets exposed to developer debt
Modena Car Attack Draws Brief Market Eye; No Rates Shift
A car drove into a crowd in Modena, Italy, injuring eight people, but bond markets showed no lasting reaction, maintaining focus on core economic drivers
BOJ's Himino Calls for Global Monetary System Overhaul as Rate Divergence Widens Spreads
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino advocates for unified global monetary policy approach, citing financial stability risks from current divergences
U.S. Official Says China Soybean Demand Cooling
A U.S. trade official's comment that China's soybean needs are "all taken care of" lowers expectations for new purchases, easing pressure on agricultural commodity prices
Wealth Inequality Backlash: Policy Risks Mount as Property Owners Feel Vilified, 10Y Yields Test Resistance
The growing resentment among affluent property holders, highlighted by recent reports