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fixed income

50 articles

Local-Currency EM Bonds Capture $6.7T Market as Foreign Capital Exits
Research & Analysis3d ago
Local-Currency EM Bonds Capture $6.7T Market as Foreign Capital Exits
Foreign ownership of emerging-market local-currency bonds has collapsed to single digits in major markets, with domestic institutional capital now absorbing new issuances and driving 9–19 percent annual returns.
Long-Dated Corporate Bonds Vanish as 30-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
Macro & Rates4d ago
Long-Dated Corporate Bonds Vanish as 30-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
Aon's 2056 notes draw seven-times-oversubscription as companies shun expensive long-term funding, leaving pension funds and insurers starved for duration.
Fed's H.8 Report Shows Bank Credit Stalling as Rate-Cut Bets Fade
Macro & Rates5d ago
Fed's H.8 Report Shows Bank Credit Stalling as Rate-Cut Bets Fade
Weekly commercial bank balance sheet data reveals slowing loan growth, complicating duration positioning in front of Fed policy clarity.
Jobless Claims Hit 196,000, Lowest Since July
Macro & Rates6d ago
Jobless Claims Hit 196,000, Lowest Since July
Labor market strength maintains pressure on Fed to keep rates higher for longer, compressing duration risk for bond investors.
Foreign Investors Dump Treasurys for U.S. Stocks; $600B Equity Inflows Dwarf Bond Demand
Macro & Rates9d ago
Foreign Investors Dump Treasurys for U.S. Stocks; $600B Equity Inflows Dwarf Bond Demand
Overseas capital has shifted decisively from government debt to equities, with foreign Treasury holdings halved to 30 percent as yield spikes and deficit concerns mount.
Private Credit Defaults Hit 6.3% in August, Showing Spread Widening Ahead
Macro & Rates9d ago
Private Credit Defaults Hit 6.3% in August, Showing Spread Widening Ahead
Fitch's record default rate among U.S. private debt borrowers is forcing institutional investors to recalibrate duration risk and prepares the market for wider spreads in below-investment-grade pa.
Aon Taps $17B Debt Market for USI Deal, Eyes 2.8x Use Path
Macro & Rates9d ago
Aon Taps $17B Debt Market for USI Deal, Eyes 2.8x Use Path
Insurance broker launches jumbo investment-grade offering—$4B term loan plus $13.5B senior notes across multiple tranches—to fund KKR acquisition and prefund 2027 maturities.
Treasury Rotation Grows as Duration Risk Repels Capital
Research & Analysis10d ago
Treasury Rotation Grows as Duration Risk Repels Capital
Long-term bond underperformance and equity volatility are driving institutional investors into ultra-short duration funds and money market equivalents, abandoning historical diversification playbooks.
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.9%, Eyes 5% as Oil, Inflation Persist
Macro & Rates10d ago
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.9%, Eyes 5% as Oil, Inflation Persist
The benchmark yield reached its highest level since November 2023 as wholesale inflation and crude oil above $100 per barrel push rates higher, with strategists warning of sustained upward pressure.
Hungary 10-Year Yields Target 4% as Euro Convergence Narrows Risk Premium
Macro & Rates12d ago
Hungary 10-Year Yields Target 4% as Euro Convergence Narrows Risk Premium
Gergely Tardos, CEO of Hungary's Debt Management Agency, projects yields could fall another 150 to 250 basis points toward 4% as euro adoption attracts longer-duration investors
10-Year Yield Hits 4.91% as Oil Surge Reignites Hike Debate
Macro & Rates12d ago
10-Year Yield Hits 4.91% as Oil Surge Reignites Hike Debate
WTI crude jumped above $100 and August PPI beat expectations, pushing Treasury yields to their highest level since 2023 and forcing markets to price in renewed Fed tightening risk
Consumer Sentiment Collapses to 47.8; 12-Month Inflation Bets Surge to 4.6%
Macro & Rates12d ago
Consumer Sentiment Collapses to 47.8; 12-Month Inflation Bets Surge to 4.6%
University of Michigan index drops 7.5% as gasoline prices and trade tensions push near-term inflation expectations to highest level since February, pressuring short-end yields
Muni Yields Hit 15-Year High as Treasuries Rally, Supply Swells
Macro & Rates13d ago
Muni Yields Hit 15-Year High as Treasuries Rally, Supply Swells
Longest-dated municipal bonds yield 15 basis points higher, touching 2011 peaks as Treasury rates rise and new issuance floods the market.
ECB Hikes to 2.5% as Energy Shock Keeps Inflation Above 3%
Macro & Rates13d ago
ECB Hikes to 2.5% as Energy Shock Keeps Inflation Above 3%
Central bank raises deposit rate for second time this year, projecting inflation will remain well above its 2% target through 2027 as Middle East conflict sustains oil and gas pressures.
Treasury Triples Buyback Cap to $6 Billion, Targets Long End Through November
Macro & Rates13d ago
Treasury Triples Buyback Cap to $6 Billion, Targets Long End Through November
U.S. Treasury launches expanded debt repurchase program targeting 10-year-plus securities, signaling active management of long-end supply and duration risk.
ECB Holds Rates Steady; Lagarde Press Conference at 3 p.m. CET
Macro & Rates13d ago
ECB Holds Rates Steady; Lagarde Press Conference at 3 p.m. CET
The European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged, with President Christine Lagarde's 3 p.m. CET press conference expected to clarify the Council's medium-term inflation strategy.
Southeast Asia Bond Auctions Weaken as Yields Rise, Creating Selective Opportunities
Research & Analysis14d ago
Southeast Asia Bond Auctions Weaken as Yields Rise, Creating Selective Opportunities
Bid-to-cover ratios across Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have fallen to multi-year lows, signaling a structural shift in investor demand amid rising global rates.
Jefferies Shuts Outsourced Fixed-Income Desk, Reverses Year-Old Pivot
Macro & Rates14d ago
Jefferies Shuts Outsourced Fixed-Income Desk, Reverses Year-Old Pivot
The firm abandons its TS Imagine integration and outsourced trading unit after just 12 months, signaling a broader retrenchment in asset management.
Amazon Taps Sterling Market With Debut Four-Tranche Deal, Pushes 2026 Borrowing Past $80B
Macro & Rates15d ago
Amazon Taps Sterling Market With Debut Four-Tranche Deal, Pushes 2026 Borrowing Past $80B
The tech giant's inaugural British pound issuance across 3-, 6-, 12-, and 19-year maturities signals confidence in sterling credit demand and extends Amazon's diversification into non-dollar funding.
July Consumer Credit Surges $18.1B; Card Debt Hits $1.357T Record
Macro & Rates15d ago
July Consumer Credit Surges $18.1B; Card Debt Hits $1.357T Record
Non-revolving credit jumped $15.3 billion in the largest monthly gain in three years, signaling sustained releveraging despite elevated 22.15% card rates.
Bessent Deploys Operation Twist as 30-Year Yields Hit 2007 Highs
Macro & Rates15d ago
Bessent Deploys Operation Twist as 30-Year Yields Hit 2007 Highs
Treasury expands buyback program targeting the 10-to-30-year curve after long-bond selloff compresses duration demand.
Amazon Taps Sterling Market as $80B 2026 Issuance Hits New Scale
Macro & Rates15d ago
Amazon Taps Sterling Market as $80B 2026 Issuance Hits New Scale
Tech giant's first UK pound bond sale expands its multi-currency funding for AI infrastructure, joining record $80 billion annual borrowing.
BlackRock, JPMorgan Rotate to EM Debt as U.S. Spreads Hit 30-Year Lows
Macro & Rates17d ago
BlackRock, JPMorgan Rotate to EM Debt as U.S. Spreads Hit 30-Year Lows
Two major asset managers are shifting capital from U.S. fixed income into emerging market local-currency debt as domestic credit spreads compress to historic lows.
Japan's $96.5B Yen Defense Drains Reserves Below $1 Trillion
Macro & Rates17d ago
Japan's $96.5B Yen Defense Drains Reserves Below $1 Trillion
Tokyo's record monthly intervention, including rare U.S. coordination, forces liquidation of $87.8 billion in foreign securities, mostly U.S. Treasuries.
BlackRock, JPMorgan Exit US Credit as Spreads Hit 30-Year Lows
Macro & Rates17d ago
BlackRock, JPMorgan Exit US Credit as Spreads Hit 30-Year Lows
Two mega-managers rotating into EM local debt, betting on dollar weakness and higher real yields as US investment-grade and high-yield valuations compress
KKR's K-FITS Clears Redemptions as K-ABF Caps Withdrawals at 5%
Macro & Rates19d ago
KKR's K-FITS Clears Redemptions as K-ABF Caps Withdrawals at 5%
Divergent liquidity pressures across KKR's retail private credit funds signal uneven stress in the asset class as duration risk reshapes investor behavior.
SoftBank Prices ¥1 Trillion Retail Bond at 4.75% — Yield Dwarfs BOJ Terminal Rate
Macro & Rates20d ago
SoftBank Prices ¥1 Trillion Retail Bond at 4.75% — Yield Dwarfs BOJ Terminal Rate
Japanese conglomerate's record ¥1 trillion seven-year offering attracts retail demand as coupon towers above expected policy rate.
Rate Moves Swing Bond Prices 5-8%: Duration Risk in a Shifting Yield Curve
Macro & Rates20d ago
Rate Moves Swing Bond Prices 5-8%: Duration Risk in a Shifting Yield Curve
When the 10-year yield moves 100 basis points, a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon can lose $80 or more—a stark reminder that duration risk is the bond market's core sensitivity.
Grocery Inflation at 2.4% YoY Shows Sticky Pressures on Long End
Macro & Rates20d ago
Grocery Inflation at 2.4% YoY Shows Sticky Pressures on Long End
Food costs up 30% since 2020 with 3.1% more projected this year, complicating Fed's disinflationary narrative and pressuring real wages.
Pakistan's $3B Eurobond Shows Investor Reassessment — 2x Oversubscription Reflects Credit Upgrade
Research & Analysis20d ago
Pakistan's $3B Eurobond Shows Investor Reassessment — 2x Oversubscription Reflects Credit Upgrade
Pakistan raised $3 billion in a dual-tranche Eurobond sale attracting nearly $6 billion in orders, marking its largest international bond issuance and suggesting durable shift in market access post-rating upgrades.
Natixis Boosts Japan Allocation as Yield Surge Reshuffles Regional Bets
Macro & Rates21d ago
Natixis Boosts Japan Allocation as Yield Surge Reshuffles Regional Bets
Rising Japanese government bond yields and sustained economic growth prompt Natixis to increase Japan equity exposure while trimming U.S. positions.
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4B as 10-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
Macro & Rates21d ago
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4B as 10-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
The Treasury expanded bond purchases to $4 billion per operation through November, signaling urgency as long-end yields surge past levels unseen since 2004.
Global Bond Yields Hit Post-2008 Highs as Deficits Force Repricing
Research & Analysis23d ago
Global Bond Yields Hit Post-2008 Highs as Deficits Force Repricing
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.34 percent in mid-August, last seen in 2007, as government debt accumulation and Middle East conflict reshape the cost of sovereign borrowing worldwide.
Australia's 10-Year Yield Hits 15-Year High as RBA Hike Bets Rise
Macro & Rates23d ago
Australia's 10-Year Yield Hits 15-Year High as RBA Hike Bets Rise
Benchmark 10-year yield crosses 5.10% on hotter-than-expected July inflation; back-end curve pricing sustained higher-rate environment
Italy 10-Year Yield Hits 4.15% as Eurozone Bonds Extend Selloff
Macro & Rates23d ago
Italy 10-Year Yield Hits 4.15% as Eurozone Bonds Extend Selloff
Italian 10-year yields rose five basis points on Aug. 31, widening the Italy-Germany spread as broader European sovereign debt markets repriced growth and inflation expectations.
Warsh Breaks Jackson Hole Tradition, Withholds Rate Guidance as Inflation Concerns Mount
Macro & Rates26d ago
Warsh Breaks Jackson Hole Tradition, Withholds Rate Guidance as Inflation Concerns Mount
Fed Chair's refusal to signal future rate direction leaves bond markets parsing a shift toward opacity, as traders price in sticky inflation risks.
Warsh: Financial Conditions Not Restrictive; 6-Month PCE at 4.1% Shows More Rate Hikes Ahead
Macro & Rates26d ago
Warsh: Financial Conditions Not Restrictive; 6-Month PCE at 4.1% Shows More Rate Hikes Ahead
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said broad financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation momentum is insufficient to justify rate cuts, keeping markets priced for higher-for-longer rates.
Real Income Falls, Delinquencies Spike — Bond Market Eyes Demand Cliff
Macro & Rates27d ago
Real Income Falls, Delinquencies Spike — Bond Market Eyes Demand Cliff
Savings rate hits 2.6%, real after-tax income down over 1% annually, and credit card delinquencies reach 2011 levels, signaling potential consumer spending slowdown.
Warsh Jackson Hole Speech Friday as Treasury Doubles Debt Buybacks
Macro & Rates27d ago
Warsh Jackson Hole Speech Friday as Treasury Doubles Debt Buybacks
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote at Jackson Hole comes as Treasury expands repurchases of off-the-run debt, keeping yield-curve traders on alert for policy signals.
Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.7 Trillion as Weekly Expansion Continues
Macro & Rates27d ago
Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.7 Trillion as Weekly Expansion Continues
The Fed's consolidated assets rose $10 billion week-over-week to $6.7 trillion, extending a pattern of balance sheet growth that bond markets are parsing for clues about future policy.
Private Sector Lifts Treasury Demand as EM Bonds Yield 5.78%
Macro & Rates27d ago
Private Sector Lifts Treasury Demand as EM Bonds Yield 5.78%
Foreign private ownership of U.S. Treasuries reaches 59%, cushioning yield pressure on emerging markets as EM fixed income outpaces global aggregates.
Initial Claims at 206,000 Keep Rate-Cut Odds Compressed
Macro & Rates27d ago
Initial Claims at 206,000 Keep Rate-Cut Odds Compressed
Jobless claims fell to 206,000, signaling labor market durability that undercuts near-term Fed easing expectations and extends duration risk for bond portfolios.
Vedanta Taps Rupee Bonds as Indian Firms Rush Debt Before Rate Hikes
Macro & Rates27d ago
Vedanta Taps Rupee Bonds as Indian Firms Rush Debt Before Rate Hikes
The resources conglomerate plans a Rs 10 billion issue to refinance debt as companies lock in borrowing costs ahead of expected RBI tightening.
Bessent's Market Moves Roil Bonds Ahead of Jackson Hole
Macro & Rates28d ago
Bessent's Market Moves Roil Bonds Ahead of Jackson Hole
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's interventions have steepened the yield curve and sharpened focus on Federal Reserve Vice Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks.
Treasury's Long-Bond Buyback Is Reallocation, Not Stimulus
Research & Analysis30d ago
Treasury's Long-Bond Buyback Is Reallocation, Not Stimulus
The quarterly budget stayed at $38 billion while per-operation ceilings doubled, exposing the gap between what buybacks can accomplish and what markets assumed.
Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks as Long-End Yields Hit Near-20-Year Highs
Research & Analysis30d ago
Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks as Long-End Yields Hit Near-20-Year Highs
Scott Bessent raised the maximum buyback operation size from $2 billion to $4 billion, targeting 10- to 30-year debt after a buyers' strike dating to late June.
Investment-Grade Data Center Debt Yields Turn Junk-Bond Cheap
Macro & Rates32d ago
Investment-Grade Data Center Debt Yields Turn Junk-Bond Cheap
Oracle and SpaceX bonds trade at speculative-grade levels as Microsoft-linked Project Odyssey draws $7.8 billion in orders for $3.9 billion offering.
BlackRock's $12.5B Data Center Bond Hits 7.53% — Widest Spread in 3 Years
Macro & Rates32d ago
BlackRock's $12.5B Data Center Bond Hits 7.53% — Widest Spread in 3 Years
A 1.6x demand multiple signals sharp deterioration in AI infrastructure credit appetite as spreads widen 288 basis points above Treasuries.
30-Year Treasuries Break 5% as Central Banks Hold Rates Steady
Macro & Rates34d ago
30-Year Treasuries Break 5% as Central Banks Hold Rates Steady
Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31
Operation Twist Cut MBS Yields 50 Basis Points in September 2011
Macro & Rates34d ago
Operation Twist Cut MBS Yields 50 Basis Points in September 2011
The Fed's shift to reinvest agency MBS paydowns into MBS rather than Treasuries drove Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae current coupon prices up 12 index points on Sept. 21, 2011