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fixed income

50 articles

SoftBank Prices ¥1 Trillion Retail Bond at 4.75% — Yield Dwarfs BOJ Terminal Rate
Macro & Rates4h ago
SoftBank Prices ¥1 Trillion Retail Bond at 4.75% — Yield Dwarfs BOJ Terminal Rate
Japanese conglomerate's record ¥1 trillion seven-year offering attracts retail demand as coupon towers above expected policy rate.
Rate Moves Swing Bond Prices 5-8%: Duration Risk in a Shifting Yield Curve
Macro & Rates11h ago
Rate Moves Swing Bond Prices 5-8%: Duration Risk in a Shifting Yield Curve
When the 10-year yield moves 100 basis points, a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon can lose $80 or more—a stark reminder that duration risk is the bond market's core sensitivity.
Grocery Inflation at 2.4% YoY Shows Sticky Pressures on Long End
Macro & Rates16h ago
Grocery Inflation at 2.4% YoY Shows Sticky Pressures on Long End
Food costs up 30% since 2020 with 3.1% more projected this year, complicating Fed's disinflationary narrative and pressuring real wages.
Pakistan's $3B Eurobond Shows Investor Reassessment — 2x Oversubscription Reflects Credit Upgrade
Research & Analysis20h ago
Pakistan's $3B Eurobond Shows Investor Reassessment — 2x Oversubscription Reflects Credit Upgrade
Pakistan raised $3 billion in a dual-tranche Eurobond sale attracting nearly $6 billion in orders, marking its largest international bond issuance and suggesting durable shift in market access post-rating upgrades.
Natixis Boosts Japan Allocation as Yield Surge Reshuffles Regional Bets
Macro & RatesYesterday
Natixis Boosts Japan Allocation as Yield Surge Reshuffles Regional Bets
Rising Japanese government bond yields and sustained economic growth prompt Natixis to increase Japan equity exposure while trimming U.S. positions.
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4B as 10-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
Macro & RatesYesterday
Treasury Doubles Buybacks to $4B as 10-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High
The Treasury expanded bond purchases to $4 billion per operation through November, signaling urgency as long-end yields surge past levels unseen since 2004.
Global Bond Yields Hit Post-2008 Highs as Deficits Force Repricing
Research & Analysis3d ago
Global Bond Yields Hit Post-2008 Highs as Deficits Force Repricing
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.34 percent in mid-August, last seen in 2007, as government debt accumulation and Middle East conflict reshape the cost of sovereign borrowing worldwide.
Australia's 10-Year Yield Hits 15-Year High as RBA Hike Bets Rise
Macro & Rates3d ago
Australia's 10-Year Yield Hits 15-Year High as RBA Hike Bets Rise
Benchmark 10-year yield crosses 5.10% on hotter-than-expected July inflation; back-end curve pricing sustained higher-rate environment
Italy 10-Year Yield Hits 4.15% as Eurozone Bonds Extend Selloff
Macro & Rates3d ago
Italy 10-Year Yield Hits 4.15% as Eurozone Bonds Extend Selloff
Italian 10-year yields rose five basis points on Aug. 31, widening the Italy-Germany spread as broader European sovereign debt markets repriced growth and inflation expectations.
Warsh Breaks Jackson Hole Tradition, Withholds Rate Guidance as Inflation Concerns Mount
Macro & Rates6d ago
Warsh Breaks Jackson Hole Tradition, Withholds Rate Guidance as Inflation Concerns Mount
Fed Chair's refusal to signal future rate direction leaves bond markets parsing a shift toward opacity, as traders price in sticky inflation risks.
Warsh: Financial Conditions Not Restrictive; 6-Month PCE at 4.1% Shows More Rate Hikes Ahead
Macro & Rates6d ago
Warsh: Financial Conditions Not Restrictive; 6-Month PCE at 4.1% Shows More Rate Hikes Ahead
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said broad financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation momentum is insufficient to justify rate cuts, keeping markets priced for higher-for-longer rates.
Real Income Falls, Delinquencies Spike — Bond Market Eyes Demand Cliff
Macro & Rates6d ago
Real Income Falls, Delinquencies Spike — Bond Market Eyes Demand Cliff
Savings rate hits 2.6%, real after-tax income down over 1% annually, and credit card delinquencies reach 2011 levels, signaling potential consumer spending slowdown.
Warsh Jackson Hole Speech Friday as Treasury Doubles Debt Buybacks
Macro & Rates7d ago
Warsh Jackson Hole Speech Friday as Treasury Doubles Debt Buybacks
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote at Jackson Hole comes as Treasury expands repurchases of off-the-run debt, keeping yield-curve traders on alert for policy signals.
Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.7 Trillion as Weekly Expansion Continues
Macro & Rates7d ago
Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.7 Trillion as Weekly Expansion Continues
The Fed's consolidated assets rose $10 billion week-over-week to $6.7 trillion, extending a pattern of balance sheet growth that bond markets are parsing for clues about future policy.
Private Sector Lifts Treasury Demand as EM Bonds Yield 5.78%
Macro & Rates7d ago
Private Sector Lifts Treasury Demand as EM Bonds Yield 5.78%
Foreign private ownership of U.S. Treasuries reaches 59%, cushioning yield pressure on emerging markets as EM fixed income outpaces global aggregates.
Initial Claims at 206,000 Keep Rate-Cut Odds Compressed
Macro & Rates7d ago
Initial Claims at 206,000 Keep Rate-Cut Odds Compressed
Jobless claims fell to 206,000, signaling labor market durability that undercuts near-term Fed easing expectations and extends duration risk for bond portfolios.
Vedanta Taps Rupee Bonds as Indian Firms Rush Debt Before Rate Hikes
Macro & Rates7d ago
Vedanta Taps Rupee Bonds as Indian Firms Rush Debt Before Rate Hikes
The resources conglomerate plans a Rs 10 billion issue to refinance debt as companies lock in borrowing costs ahead of expected RBI tightening.
Bessent's Market Moves Roil Bonds Ahead of Jackson Hole
Macro & Rates8d ago
Bessent's Market Moves Roil Bonds Ahead of Jackson Hole
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's interventions have steepened the yield curve and sharpened focus on Federal Reserve Vice Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks.
Treasury's Long-Bond Buyback Is Reallocation, Not Stimulus
Research & Analysis10d ago
Treasury's Long-Bond Buyback Is Reallocation, Not Stimulus
The quarterly budget stayed at $38 billion while per-operation ceilings doubled, exposing the gap between what buybacks can accomplish and what markets assumed.
Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks as Long-End Yields Hit Near-20-Year Highs
Research & Analysis10d ago
Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks as Long-End Yields Hit Near-20-Year Highs
Scott Bessent raised the maximum buyback operation size from $2 billion to $4 billion, targeting 10- to 30-year debt after a buyers' strike dating to late June.
Investment-Grade Data Center Debt Yields Turn Junk-Bond Cheap
Macro & Rates12d ago
Investment-Grade Data Center Debt Yields Turn Junk-Bond Cheap
Oracle and SpaceX bonds trade at speculative-grade levels as Microsoft-linked Project Odyssey draws $7.8 billion in orders for $3.9 billion offering.
BlackRock's $12.5B Data Center Bond Hits 7.53% — Widest Spread in 3 Years
Macro & Rates12d ago
BlackRock's $12.5B Data Center Bond Hits 7.53% — Widest Spread in 3 Years
A 1.6x demand multiple signals sharp deterioration in AI infrastructure credit appetite as spreads widen 288 basis points above Treasuries.
30-Year Treasuries Break 5% as Central Banks Hold Rates Steady
Macro & Rates14d ago
30-Year Treasuries Break 5% as Central Banks Hold Rates Steady
Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31
Operation Twist Cut MBS Yields 50 Basis Points in September 2011
Macro & Rates14d ago
Operation Twist Cut MBS Yields 50 Basis Points in September 2011
The Fed's shift to reinvest agency MBS paydowns into MBS rather than Treasuries drove Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae current coupon prices up 12 index points on Sept. 21, 2011
Aegon's Steepener Bet Defies Bessent's Long-Bond Rate Containment
Macro & Rates14d ago
Aegon's Steepener Bet Defies Bessent's Long-Bond Rate Containment
Aegon Asset Management maintains a yield-curve steepener position, betting Fed cuts in 2026 will compress short-end rates while long-term yields hold or rise, despite Treasury efforts to cap borrowing costs.
Australia's 4.5% July Jobless Rate Kills RBA Hike Odds
Macro & Rates15d ago
Australia's 4.5% July Jobless Rate Kills RBA Hike Odds
Unemployment rose above consensus, signaling the central bank will pause rate action at its September meeting and ending a tightening cycle.
Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks to $4B, Targets Yield Compression
Macro & Rates15d ago
Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks to $4B, Targets Yield Compression
Treasury expands liquidity operations in 10-30 year sector to $4 billion per operation, effective Sept. 9, as long-end yields reach multi-year highs
Treasury Yields Retreat as Auctions and Iran Risk Cloud Rate-Cut Outlook
Macro & Rates15d ago
Treasury Yields Retreat as Auctions and Iran Risk Cloud Rate-Cut Outlook
The 10-year yield fell to 4.708% Tuesday ahead of the 20-year auction, but inflation breakevens hardened and geopolitical uncertainty left the curve vulnerable to fresh selling.
French 30-Year Yield Hits Multi-Year High as Euro Zone Spread Widens
Macro & Rates15d ago
French 30-Year Yield Hits Multi-Year High as Euro Zone Spread Widens
France's long-end borrowing costs surged Wednesday as fiscal concerns widened the spread over German bunds, while oil's fourth straight gain kept inflation pressure on duration-heavy portfolios.
Ukraine's Corporate Bond Market Hits 24% Yields as Sovereign Compression Drives Retail Shift
Research & Analysis15d ago
Ukraine's Corporate Bond Market Hits 24% Yields as Sovereign Compression Drives Retail Shift
As government bond yields decline, Ukrainian retail investors are rotating into higher-yielding corporate debt, reshaping a market that was nearly dormant before the latest cycle.
Chinese Bonds Draw $2.5B in Foreign Inflows as Global Markets Sell
Research & Analysis15d ago
Chinese Bonds Draw $2.5B in Foreign Inflows as Global Markets Sell
Low inflation and coal-heavy energy mix let Beijing hold rates steady while peers hike, pulling capital from other emerging markets.
RBI Closes Dollar Swap Window Early, Rupee and Short-Term Bonds Sell Off
Research & Analysis17d ago
RBI Closes Dollar Swap Window Early, Rupee and Short-Term Bonds Sell Off
The Reserve Bank of India shut its FCNR(B) swap facility ahead of schedule, pushing the rupee to 95.61 per dollar and lifting the 10-year bond yield to 6.81 percent.
Bridgewater's China Fund Lost 5.6% in July as Iran War Hit Markets
Macro & Rates17d ago
Bridgewater's China Fund Lost 5.6% in July as Iran War Hit Markets
The selloff erased ground from a 45 percent gain in 2025, leaving Bridgewater's onshore strategy still ahead of local rivals despite its worst single-month loss since inception.
Treasury Basis Trade Stalls at $1 Trillion as Hedge Funds Hit Capacity
Macro & Rates17d ago
Treasury Basis Trade Stalls at $1 Trillion as Hedge Funds Hit Capacity
Morgan Stanley estimates leveraged basis positions have shrunk more than $200 billion, with a Goldman desk chief saying clients call the trade 'dead.'
China's July Data Miss Deepens as Investment Slump Grows
Macro & Rates17d ago
China's July Data Miss Deepens as Investment Slump Grows
Retail sales grew 0.6 percent year-over-year in July, urban fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7 percent year-to-date, and new bank loans posted their largest monthly decline on record.
European Stocks Hit Four-Year Earnings Peak as Capital Rotates From U.S
Macro & Rates17d ago
European Stocks Hit Four-Year Earnings Peak as Capital Rotates From U.S
The Stoxx 600 has gained 12 percent as investors exit U.S. tech exposure, drawn by the strongest European earnings season since 2022 and a euro above $1.15.
India's Early FCNR Swap Closure Pushes Short-Tenor Bond Yields Higher
Research & Analysis18d ago
India's Early FCNR Swap Closure Pushes Short-Tenor Bond Yields Higher
The RBI moved its diaspora-deposit hedging deadline to Aug. 31 after inflows topped $52 billion, lifting shorter-duration bond yields as banks lost a zero-cost hedge.
BlackRock Projects 11.6% Earnings Growth — and Cuts Government Bond Exposure
Macro & Rates18d ago
BlackRock Projects 11.6% Earnings Growth — and Cuts Government Bond Exposure
The firm's five-year assumptions target U.S. corporate profit growth seen in only 15 percent of historical periods, paired with a strategic underweight to developed market sovereign debt.
EM Debt's $886 Billion Rally Meets Selective Buyers as Spreads Tighten
Research & Analysis18d ago
EM Debt's $886 Billion Rally Meets Selective Buyers as Spreads Tighten
Hard currency spreads hit historically tight levels by May as distressed sovereigns led gains, but a drone strike on June 25 closed the quarter on a cautious note.
Economists' Rate Forecasts Miss Year After Year — The Philadelphia Fed Data Shows Why
Research & Analysis20d ago
Economists' Rate Forecasts Miss Year After Year — The Philadelphia Fed Data Shows Why
Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.
Bond Correlations Are Breaking Down—Making Fixed Income Harder to Trade
Research & Analysis20d ago
Bond Correlations Are Breaking Down—Making Fixed Income Harder to Trade
AlphaSimplex's Kathryn Kaminski says bonds now respond to geopolitical risk and inflation rather than U.S. growth data, stripping traders of their traditional navigation tools.
BOJ Holds at 1% but Warns Inflation Will Exceed 2% Target — Yen Rallies to 157.96
Macro & Rates20d ago
BOJ Holds at 1% but Warns Inflation Will Exceed 2% Target — Yen Rallies to 157.96
An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.
Used Car Prices Rise Faster Than Bitcoin as Energy Supply Risks Mount
Macro & Rates21d ago
Used Car Prices Rise Faster Than Bitcoin as Energy Supply Risks Mount
Jim Bianco flags 'bubblicious' used car inflation outpacing Bitcoin while Vance's Ukraine tanker request and North Sea well closures tighten the crude outlook.
UK Buyer Enquiries Fall to August 2023 Lows as London Leads Downturn
Macro & Rates22d ago
UK Buyer Enquiries Fall to August 2023 Lows as London Leads Downturn
A RICS survey shows UK buyer enquiries and agreed sales dropped to their lowest since August 2023, with London and East Anglia seeing the sharpest declines.
Hormuz Closure Persists, Lifting Brent Near $85 — WTI Up 5% to $82.13
Macro & Rates22d ago
Hormuz Closure Persists, Lifting Brent Near $85 — WTI Up 5% to $82.13
Crude advances for a sixth session as U.S.-Iran talks over Strait traffic collapse, sustaining supply shocks that extend duration risk across fixed-income portfolios
Motor Vehicle Insurance Falls 0.3% in July, Pulling Headline CPI to 0.1% Monthly Gain
Macro & Rates22d ago
Motor Vehicle Insurance Falls 0.3% in July, Pulling Headline CPI to 0.1% Monthly Gain
Two consecutive monthly declines in auto insurance costs provided a rare deflationary impulse in services, even as annual CPI held at 3.4 percent.
ABN Amro Q1 Net Income Beats All Estimates at €692M; Shares Rise 7.9 Percent
Macro & Rates22d ago
ABN Amro Q1 Net Income Beats All Estimates at €692M; Shares Rise 7.9 Percent
The Dutch bank posted a 20 percent jump in fee income and raised its revenue outlook, sending shares to their highest single-session gain in months.
July Credit Inflows Hit $2.3 Billion as U.S. Consumer Debt Climbs to $1.26 Trillion
Macro & Rates23d ago
July Credit Inflows Hit $2.3 Billion as U.S. Consumer Debt Climbs to $1.26 Trillion
Investors moved into riskier bond segments last month even as New York Fed data showed consumer credit card debt at a record $1.26 trillion.
Bond Market Flags Systemic Risk in Inflation-Fueled Circular Financing
Macro & Rates23d ago
Bond Market Flags Systemic Risk in Inflation-Fueled Circular Financing
Veterans warn that relying on rising collateral values to justify leveraged structures repeats a pattern seen before past credit blowups.
Gold Tops $4,400 Ahead of CPI Report That Could Change Fed Rate Path
Macro & Rates24d ago
Gold Tops $4,400 Ahead of CPI Report That Could Change Fed Rate Path
Bullion hits a two-month high as traders weigh July inflation data, energy risks and Fed signals before Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release.