BAGHDAD — U.S. forces are set to complete their withdrawal from Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of more than 20 years of American military presence in the country. This departure follows an agreement reached in 2024 under then-President Joe Biden and has been executed by President Donald Trump’s administration.
Iran and its allied factions in Iraq are celebrating the withdrawal as a strategic victory. These groups now wield deep influence in the nation where 4,500 Americans died during the U.S. military involvement. Iran considers the departure a success for its “axis of resistance,” a network of armed groups across the Middle East, and aims to see American forces leave the entire region.
Iraqi security analysts warn the U.S. departure could grant Tehran and its allies greater freedom of action. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in Shi’ite armed groups aligned with Iran, said the withdrawal removes a military presence that served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence. He predicted pro-Iranian militia groups will use this momentum for increased sway over security and political decisions.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization of Iran-backed armed factions, hailed the withdrawal as “a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project.” Al-Yasiri said Sept. 30 would mark “the turning of a black page in Iraq’s history and the failure of the occupation to impose its will on our country,” adding that Iraq’s sovereignty is secured by its resistance and people, not foreign forces.
While the eventual departure of U.S. forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, some express concern that the withdrawal is premature. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, said Iraq is “still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time.” He said all Iraqis desire full sovereignty, but “the [U.S.-led coalition] leaving in this way and creating a vacuum is what all Iraqis fear.”
The withdrawal also raises fears that other U.S. adversaries, including the Islamic State militant group, could stage a resurgence. The U.S. first invaded Iraq in 2003 to depose Sunni Muslim dictator Saddam Hussein, leading to a prolonged occupation and a years-long counterinsurgency campaign.
American forces initially withdrew at the end of 2011 but returned less than three years later in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in combating the Islamic State. The major war against the Sunni militant group continued until 2017.
The conflict in Iraq, known as “Operation Iraqi Freedom,” resulted in two times as many American fatalities as the parallel war in Afghanistan, which concluded with an abrupt U.S. withdrawal in 2021.
In recent years, Iraq has maintained close political and military alliances with both the United States and Iran, often serving as a proxy battlefield. Baghdad has also delayed disarming Iran-backed militias, pushing the deadline to June 2027, according to reports.
