BRUSSELS — Sentiment about Islam is intensifying in Europe. Polls indicate one-half the population in several European countries views the religion as incompatible with Western values, a perception contributing to the rise of populist-right movements.
Germany's populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, its highest state-election tally to date. The party campaigned on warnings about “Islamisation” and pledged forced deportations.
In Britain, hundreds of people occupied Dover the same weekend, chanting “Stop the boats” and “Christ is King.” In France, Marine Le Pen's proposal to ban Islamic headscarves from public spaces garners support from 60 percent of voters.
Concerns have also spread to the United States. Discussions there focus less on terrorism, as after Sept. 11, 2001, and more on a perceived Islamic plot to take over Europe internally. Members of the Trump administration have voiced warnings of “civilisational erasure.”
This sentiment strains transatlantic relations. However, analysis indicates Europe faces no Islamic takeover, no widespread radicalization of Muslims, and no cultural erasure. Reports show an absence of “no-go zones,” no creeping Sharia law, and no demographic “great replacement” underway.
The danger to Europe stems from extremism fueled by Islamism—the belief that the state should enforce Islamic principles—and by right-wing paranoia amplified through social media. This dynamic is exacerbated by the political left, which denies the modest but real threats posed by Islamism, and by centrist politicians who remain silent to avoid accusations of racism.
These dynamics could harm Europe’s liberal democracies by slowing integration and promoting policies detrimental to freedoms, rather than leading to a caliphate. Despite record migration from majority-Muslim countries, Muslims constitute just six percent of Europe’s population of more than 500 million.
While new arrivals typically have more children than native-born populations, fertility rates generally converge within two generations. This trend does not support claims of civilisational erasure. Most Muslim immigrants aim to integrate into their new homes rather than impose previous societal structures.
Children of Muslim immigrants often achieve better academic results than their parents. In Britain, 67 percent of Bangladeshis who took standard tests in 2021 enrolled in university by age 19, compared with 38 percent of white Britons. Many Muslims participate in mainstream politics, including Britain’s home secretary and London’s mayor.
Polling among British Muslims revealed little resistance to women working, indicating Muslim attitudes can align with those of other Europeans in important ways. However, some Muslim populations hold illiberal views. A 2024 survey found Muslims are two to three times more likely than the general public to believe Jews hold excessive power in finance, media, foreign policy and pharmaceuticals across the United Kingdom and the United States.
In Britain, 52 percent of Muslims believe homosexuality is wrong. This view is more prevalent among young Muslims, with 41 percent of those under 35 holding this belief, compared with 25 percent of their elders. A 2005 report noted that one-half the Dutch population and one-half of Moroccan and Turkish minorities in the Netherlands stated Western and Muslim lifestyles could not be reconciled. A 2015 poll in Poland found 44 percent of Poles held negative attitudes toward Muslims.
