NEW YORK — The United States and Iran held three hours of indirect talks at the United Nations on Sept. 22, their first such parley since June, with Qatari envoys shuttling messages between delegations.
President Donald Trump called the talks "very productive," but diplomats privately expressed skepticism, saying the format was not conducive to a breakthrough and that the two nations remain far apart on key issues.
Iran is pressing the U.S. to reinstate a memorandum of understanding signed in June as a 60-day interim accord. Trump favors scrapping that deal to negotiate a new agreement.
During the same week, Trump convened a summit with officials from Gulf states, Turkey, and four other Arab countries. He cited "a lot of momentum" toward a deal but also warned of a potential strike on a nuclear site in Iran.
Economic pressure is intensifying. Iran attacked at least five tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over the past week. On Sept. 23, the U.S. imposed sanctions against foreign firms that refuel or service Iranian planes, effectively barring Iran's airlines from operating international flights.
In Yemen, the Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group, abandoned a 2022 ceasefire with Saudi-backed adversaries this month and seized territory in the south.
The conflict—now in its eighth month after Trump predicted a quick resolution—has strained relations with American allies and destabilized a region where U.S. influence is eroding. The current crisis follows three and a half decades of American military engagement that has failed to produce lasting stability.
In 1991, after expelling Iraqi forces from Kuwait, the U.S. appeared positioned to reshape the region. The Pentagon had won a swift victory, and American diplomats were preparing to host the Madrid conference for direct Israeli-Arab negotiations. With the Soviet Union weakening, American dominance seemed assured. Instead, the ensuing decades brought what some strategists now describe as a series of failed interventions.
World leaders gathered in New York this week increasingly view the U.S. as a source of the Middle East's instability rather than a stabilizing force. That perception is likely to outlast this war's conclusion.
The U.S. will not entirely withdraw from the Middle East, but American strategists acknowledge the need to reduce their regional footprint. Regional allies have lost confidence, American voters oppose further protracted engagements, and strategic crises elsewhere demand attention.
No other power—particularly the Arab states themselves—is prepared to fill the vacuum left by a retreating United States. The transition is expected to bring instability. Many regional states remain weak, divided, or failed, and the order America sought to build over 35 years has not endured.
Israel's repeated conflicts with neighbors, the collapse of Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, and subsequent military operations in Gaza illustrate the toll on the region, even as Washington once justified its role as serving strategic interests.
Trump's return to the White House in 2025 has further eroded confidence in American leadership across the Middle East. While a reduced American role could eventually prove beneficial, the immediate period ahead is expected to be volatile.
