Multibillion-dollar investments in artificial intelligence and data centers now account for roughly one-third of U.S. economic growth in 2026, according to analysis by ING, highlighting how concentrated the nation's expansion has become around a single technology sector.
The AI boom is offsetting a global slowdown triggered by energy disruptions. International Monetary Fund Chief Kristalina Georgieva noted the global economy "weathered the oil shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz better than feared," describing the AI investment surge as a positive demand shock that balances adverse energy impacts.
The real estate footprint is unmistakable. Data center and power generation construction are now the only U.S. construction sectors experiencing growth. Residential construction is stalled by elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints. Non-residential construction outside technology has flatlined.
The spending intensity is extraordinary. Real spending on computing equipment and software has risen 62 percent cumulatively since the first quarter of 2022—a pace that has cannibalized other business investment. Non-tech capital spending fell year-on-year for six consecutive quarters between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2026.
Technology spending outside data centers, however, has declined since the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which allocated $52.7 billion to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, expired as a growth driver.
Economists debate the precise contribution. Harvard's Jason Furman calculated that technology and software investment drove 92 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Others argue the figure is lower, accounting for imported technology that must be subtracted.
ING's methodology focuses narrowly on computer and peripheral equipment plus software, reasoning that broader "information processing" categories include non-AI items like medical devices and photocopiers. The distinction matters: it underscores how difficult it is to isolate AI's true economic footprint from the broader tech spending boom.
