Jason Furman

“My vote plans on 3 MA ballot initiatives on economic issues, in case helpful in thinking for anyone voting here. And I should say, my rebuttable presumption is always no--nine initiatives on the ballot is a terrible way to govern. Legislature not perfect but better than this.”

“My thought on the role of growth in solving fiscal problems: 1. I'm in favor of dynamic scoring for both tax & spending plans--you should take into account the best estimate of impact on budget. 2. Dynamic scoring needs to be done by CBO/JCT, they're generally unbiased and reasonably efficient. As a result they often disappoint advocates. 3. Ideally CBO would also display other information than just growth, the so…”

“In case you haven't paid attention to Treasury markets since the FOMC last met six weeks ago, here is an update: you didn't miss anything.”

“When the Fed doesn't move tomorrow the US will still have among the highest real policy rates of any of the major central banks in the world--a turnaround from the past when we tended to be on the low end. Due to a combo of our strong growth & inflationary pressures.”

“Last yr the Fed projected 1 cut this year. Instead we're going to end up with 1 or 2 hikes, well below what the Fed's implicit reaction function would call for. But if you're OK writing off ~0.5pp of inflation as transitory then they're right on target.”

“I mostly agree with you @Claudia_Sahm. I expect colleagues to continue to have research assistants even if only for mentorship than because they need the help. Companies to have junior staff not because they need their current work but to train them for future roles.”

“You can debate the magnitude of people who move for tax reasons. But if you debate the existence you lose all credibility with me. I could easily name more than a dozen people I know who have moved from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions to reduce their taxes.”

“One thought no one will like on the CA wealth tax (and also on high-income taxes in other states): To some degree as a quasi-utilitarian I should be thinking about what it does to total revenue not state revenue. If CA loses 80 but Texas and Florida gain 100 that could be good.”

“This is the standard way to score tax policy. You score the law as written (in this case a one-time wealth tax) and the behavioral consequences from that law (people worried it will last moving). There are arguments against that approach. But is not 'highly inappropriate' or 'dishonest' to do what JCT or any other neutral body would do.”

“Fortunately, I'm not sure @SoumayaKeynes and @ChadBown deliver on their title How to Win a Trade War. The book is excellent and while it's more balanced about the pros and cons of trade than I would be, it's hard to come away from it with any enthusiasm for launching a trade war.”