What The Kobeissi Letter has said about federal reserve

1. November 12, 2026 · on X

   “US inflationary pressures are broadening: Core CPI inflation surged to a 3-month annualized rate of +3.75% in October, its highest reading since April 2024. This marks its 3rd consecutive monthly increase, up from +1.64% in July. At the same time, core services less shelter inflation, also known as Supercore CPI and closely monitored by the Fed, rose to a 3-month annualized rate of +5.45%, its highest since mid-2024. The weighted proportion of CPI components rising at an annualized rate above 2% soared to 76% la…”

   Kobeissi Letter Reports Broadening US Inflationary Pressures →

2. November 9, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: Total US consumer credit surged +$29 billion in September, to a record $5.19 trillion. This marks the largest monthly increase since December 2025 and the 3rd-largest monthly increase since November 2023. US consumer credit has now risen for 7 consecutive months by a total of +$125 billion. Meanwhile, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$16 billion, to a record $1.37 trillion, marking its largest monthly increase since November 2023. Non-revolving credit, covering auto and student lo…”

   Kobeissi Letter Reports US Consumer Credit Surged to Record $5.19 Trillion →

3. October 29, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: US September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rises to 3.6%. Core PCE inflation also rose to 3.1%, up +0.3% month-over-month. This officially confirms that CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation are all rising again. A December rate hike is coming.”

   Kobeissi Letter Says Rising Inflation Shows December Rate Hike →

4. October 17, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: Interest expense on US public debt rose +$144 billion YoY in FY2026, or +12%, to a record $1.36 trillion. This marks the 6th consecutive annual increase, for a total of +$839 billion, or +161%. For perspective, total receipts rose just +3.2% YoY, to $5.40 trillion. In other words, interest on federal debt accounted for 25% of total US government receipts. Meanwhile, Social Security, the largest government expense, jumped +$86 billion YoY, or +5.5%, to a record $1.67 trillion. At this pace, interest cos…”

   The Kobeissi Letter Reports US Debt Interest Expense Hits Record $1.36 Trillion →

5. October 11, 2026 · on X

   “US families are falling behind on debt payments. The percentage of families reporting overdue loan payments surged to 19.6% in 2025, the highest since 2010, according to the Fed data. This marks a sharp increase from 12.2% recorded in 2022. This also reverses the gradual improvement between 2013 and 2019, when the percentage declined by -2.6 points. Furthermore, more than 8.0% of families reported they were at least 2 months behind on payments, up from 5.0% in 2022. This comes despite the typical family debt loa…”

   Kobeissi Letter Reports Surge in US Families Behind on Debt Payments →

6. October 9, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: Total consumer credit rose +$8.3 billion in August, to a record $5.19 trillion. This marks the 14th consecutive monthly increase, totalling +$154 billion. Since the start of 2022, consumer credit has risen +$684 billion. Non-revolving credit, covering auto and student loans, rose +$13.1 billion in August, to $3.84 trillion, an all-time high. Meanwhile, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, fell -$4.8 billion, to $1.35 trillion, its 4th-highest level on record. US consumers are still borrowing.”

   The Kobeissi Letter Reports Record Consumer Credit Growth →

7. October 6, 2026 · on X

   “The US high-yield credit market stress is rising: Credit spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds are up to 12.0%, their widest level since November 2022. Over the last 5 months, this figure has surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%. This represents a comparable increase to that seen during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 market correction. If this pace continues, credit spreads for the lowest-rated US corporate bonds will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% as soon…”

   The Kobeissi Letter Warns of Rising US High-Yield Credit Stress →

8. October 2, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report. Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike. We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market.”

   Kobeissi Letter Reports Drastic Drop in October Rate Hike Expectations →

9. September 30, 2026 · on X

   “BREAKING: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%. Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were also revised down by 30 basis points each. October rate hike odds are falling again.”

   Kobeissi Letter Reports US August PCE Inflation Falls Below Expectations →

10. September 27, 2026 · on X

    “BREAKING: The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.6 points in September, to 48.1, its 2nd-lowest level in history. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, totaling -7.1 points. This comes as the Current Conditions Index decreased -1.0 point, to 50.9, its 4th-lowest reading on record. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index dropped -5.2 points, to 46.3, its 2nd-lowest since 1980. This year, the sentiment has deteriorated for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income. The d…”

    Kobeissi Letter Reports Consumer Sentiment Near Historic Lows →

Statements are reported from The Kobeissi Letter’s own public posts and appearances, quoted verbatim, checked against the original before publication, and linked to it. Inclusion is editorial and not an endorsement of any view, product, or asset. Full profile: The Kobeissi Letter. The beat: Federal Reserve.