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People · The Kobeissi Letter · Federal Reserve

What The Kobeissi Letter has said about federal reserve

The Kobeissi Letter, a markets commentary publication. 7 statements from September 27, 2026 to October 17, 2026, each quoted word for word from the original and checked before publication. Newest first.

  1. October 17, 2026 · on X
    “BREAKING: Interest expense on US public debt rose +$144 billion YoY in FY2026, or +12%, to a record $1.36 trillion. This marks the 6th consecutive annual increase, for a total of +$839 billion, or +161%. For perspective, total receipts rose just +3.2% YoY, to $5.40 trillion. In other words, interest on federal debt accounted for 25% of total US government receipts. Meanwhile, Social Security, the largest government expense, jumped +$86 billion YoY, or +5.5%, to a record $1.67 trillion. At this pace, interest cos…”

    The Kobeissi Letter Reports US Debt Interest Expense Hits Record $1.36 Trillion →

  2. October 11, 2026 · on X
    “US families are falling behind on debt payments. The percentage of families reporting overdue loan payments surged to 19.6% in 2025, the highest since 2010, according to the Fed data. This marks a sharp increase from 12.2% recorded in 2022. This also reverses the gradual improvement between 2013 and 2019, when the percentage declined by -2.6 points. Furthermore, more than 8.0% of families reported they were at least 2 months behind on payments, up from 5.0% in 2022. This comes despite the typical family debt loa…”

    Kobeissi Letter Reports Surge in US Families Behind on Debt Payments →

  3. October 9, 2026 · on X
    “BREAKING: Total consumer credit rose +$8.3 billion in August, to a record $5.19 trillion. This marks the 14th consecutive monthly increase, totalling +$154 billion. Since the start of 2022, consumer credit has risen +$684 billion. Non-revolving credit, covering auto and student loans, rose +$13.1 billion in August, to $3.84 trillion, an all-time high. Meanwhile, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, fell -$4.8 billion, to $1.35 trillion, its 4th-highest level on record. US consumers are still borrowing.”

    The Kobeissi Letter Reports Record Consumer Credit Growth →

  4. October 6, 2026 · on X
    “The US high-yield credit market stress is rising: Credit spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds are up to 12.0%, their widest level since November 2022. Over the last 5 months, this figure has surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%. This represents a comparable increase to that seen during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 market correction. If this pace continues, credit spreads for the lowest-rated US corporate bonds will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% as soon…”

    The Kobeissi Letter Warns of Rising US High-Yield Credit Stress →

  5. October 2, 2026 · on X
    “BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report. Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike. We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market.”

    Kobeissi Letter Reports Drastic Drop in October Rate Hike Expectations →

  6. September 30, 2026 · on X
    “BREAKING: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%. Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were also revised down by 30 basis points each. October rate hike odds are falling again.”

    Kobeissi Letter Reports US August PCE Inflation Falls Below Expectations →

  7. September 27, 2026 · on X
    “BREAKING: The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.6 points in September, to 48.1, its 2nd-lowest level in history. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, totaling -7.1 points. This comes as the Current Conditions Index decreased -1.0 point, to 50.9, its 4th-lowest reading on record. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index dropped -5.2 points, to 46.3, its 2nd-lowest since 1980. This year, the sentiment has deteriorated for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income. The d…”

    Kobeissi Letter Reports Consumer Sentiment Near Historic Lows →

Statements are reported from The Kobeissi Letter’s own public posts and appearances, quoted verbatim, checked against the original before publication, and linked to it. Inclusion is editorial and not an endorsement of any view, product, or asset. Full profile: The Kobeissi Letter. The beat: Federal Reserve.