, a markets commentary publication, reported on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, that key inflation figures for August came in below economists' forecasts. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, showed a notable deceleration. The publication stated, "BREAKING: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%. Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were also revised down by 30 basis points each. October rate hike odds are falling again."
This new inflation data arrives as the Federal Reserve continues to monitor price stability for future monetary policy decisions. Recent Gokhshtein coverage noted that OPEC+ holding steady helped ease some inflation pressure on bond curves. Conversely, French inflation recently hit 3.4% primarily due to an energy surge, highlighting varied global inflationary pressures. Gold has seen its price stall at $4,180, caught between fluctuating Fed rate hike odds and broader geopolitical risks.
The Kobeissi Letter's statement implies that the cooler-than-expected August inflation metrics could reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement further interest rate increases. The reported falling October rate hike odds suggest that market participants are now pricing in a less hawkish stance from the central bank. This shift in expectations could influence short-term bond yields and potentially impact broader investor sentiment towards risk assets, as the prospect of higher borrowing costs diminishes.
