HSBC downgraded Nvidia to Hold from Buy, cutting its price target to $170—a 54 percent reduction from the previous $365-$375 range. The new target implies just 4.4 percent upside from Friday's close of $162.85.
Nvidia shares have fallen 23.78 percent since Oct. 29. The stock trades at roughly 11 times forward earnings, its lowest multiple in 15 years, despite reporting $96.22 billion in revenue last quarter—up 105.8 percent year over year.
The downgrade follows CEO Jensen Huang's resignation Thursday, with CFO Colette Kress assuming the interim role. HSBC analyst Frank Lee said the stock will remain under pressure until Nvidia names a permanent successor and demonstrates execution. At least nine firms—including Truist, Bernstein, KeyBanc, Evercore ISI and Oppenheimer—have issued Hold-type downgrades since Huang's departure.
Lee flagged export risk as a second concern. About 11 percent of Nvidia's revenue over the past six quarters came from countries outside the U.S. and Taiwan, potentially vulnerable to tighter chip regulations. This revenue largely overlaps with sovereign and regional cloud buyers in Nvidia's Accelerated Computing Infrastructure and Enterprise segment, which posted $40 billion in revenue last quarter, up 138 percent year over year.
In Lee's bear case, loss of that export revenue would cut Nvidia's fiscal 2028 EPS to $13.57 from $15.65—a 13 percent hit. Yet even at current prices, the stock trades near 10 times HSBC's base-case EPS and roughly 12 times Lee's downside estimate. His $170 target assumes roughly 11 times base-case earnings, implying the current discount persists.
Barclays and DA Davidson trimmed targets to $210 and $200, respectively, but kept positive ratings. Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating with a $300 target. Consensus among 61 analysts remains Buy, signaling disagreement on whether the market repricing is structural or temporary.
Nvidia has committed nearly $50 billion to frontier AI labs, with management projecting that demand from these balance-sheet-backed labs will represent roughly one-quarter of next year's revenue. The next CEO will inherit these strategic commitments.
