Democrats and independents who caucus with them secured 54 Senate seats in the 2026 midterm elections, with totals potentially reaching 56 as races in Mississippi and Alaska remain uncalled. Republicans, who entered the midterms with a 53-47 majority, now face a difficult path back to Senate control.
To regain the chamber in 2028, Republicans would need to flip at least four seats—a tall order even if the party retains the vice presidency. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed he expects to be re-elected Majority Leader.
Several GOP-held seats could prove vulnerable. Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who turned 93 in September, has not committed to seeking another term in 2028. In Iowa's recent midterm, Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Ashley Hinson by roughly four percentage points, signaling a difficult political environment for Republicans in the state.
If Grassley departs before 2028, Iowa's newly elected Democratic governor would appoint a temporary replacement, further entrenching Democratic control before the next general election.
Democratic control of Congress has opened a path for legislation long blocked by Republican opposition, notably statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. Such a move would add four Senate seats and likely require Democrats to abolish or overcome the legislative filibuster—a step some moderate lawmakers oppose.
Statehood bills would also need House approval and either presidential signature or a two-thirds veto override. President Donald Trump could veto, and Democrats currently lack the votes to override him. If Republicans lose the White House in 2028, however, Democrats would face a clearer path to advancing statehood, a move that would reshape the Senate map for years to come.
Democrats will defend six Senate seats in 2028.
