Bitcoin challenged key on-chain support on Nov 3, closing just below its True Market Mean before recovering above the level overnight. The asset briefly dipped to $76.1K—a 10 percent pullback from September highs.
The True Market Mean, which represents the average cost basis of active investors, had held as support through October. The recent breach tests the durability of this established floor.
Short-term holders—defined as investors who acquired Bitcoin within the last 155 days—have swung sharply underwater. In early October, 97.5 percent of short-term holder supply was in profit. That figure now sits at 38 percent, a dramatic reversal that signals recent buyers are largely holding losses.
This metric reflects a market far less stretched than a month ago. A recovery in short-term holder profitability above 50 percent, paired with price holding current levels, would signal renewed conviction among newer entrants.
Bitcoin's August and September rallies had reclaimed several key on-chain levels—the 200-day average, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, and the True Market Mean. Maintaining price above these benchmarks is essential to sustaining uptrend momentum. The current retest determines whether that August rally remains intact.
