Cameco (CCJ) closed at $78.60 on Oct. 23, marking its lowest point since September 2025. The stock is down 42 percent from its Jan. 28 record close of $134.09, yet the long-term uranium price—the benchmark for multiyear supply contracts—hit $96.50 a pound at the end of September, exceeding the 2007 peak.
This disconnect is the core investment thesis. Cameco's Q3 earnings report, due before market open on Oct. 30, should spotlight the gap between today's commodity strength and the company's backward-looking contract book.
Cameco's second-quarter earnings disappointed: non-IFRS adjusted EPS fell 75 percent year-over-year, though much of that decline was one-time. A two-reactor Westinghouse project added roughly $170 million to Cameco's revenue share in the prior-year quarter—a boost that did not recur. More importantly, uranium deliveries fell 18 percent to 7.1 million pounds, a deliberate choice to preserve supply for higher-priced contracts ahead.
The realized price tells the real story. Cameco averaged $67.79 per pound in Q2, up 18 percent year-over-year but still $29 below the current long-term price. The lag exists because many contracts were signed when uranium traded far chea. As older, lower-priced deals expire, new supply committed at today's $96+ levels will drive earnings higher—potentially significantly.
Cameco holds contracts for deliveries exceeding 28 million pounds annually over the next five years, with commitments dipping below that average in 2029 and 2030. That runway gives the company room to lock in new volume at current elevated prices. CEO Tim Gitzel confirmed the strategy in the Q2 release: "We continue to be patient and selective in committing supply." For 2026, Cameco expects to deliver 29 million to 32 million pounds.
The recent selloff was partly technical. The Oct. 14 inflation report triggered Fed rate-hike fears, and uranium stocks—including CCJ—fell roughly 5 percent that day. Higher rates pressure growth and long-duration profit streams. But for a company sitting on a contract backlog poised to refresh at 40+ percent higher prices, multiple compression is a buying opportunity.
Watch Oct. 30 guidance closely: any signal that Cameco plans to sign material new volume at today's prices, or raise 2026 delivery expectations, could re-rate the stock sharply. At current levels, the market is pricing in uranium weakness, not strength.
