U.S.-India trade negotiations have stalled, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer saying Thursday that a deal was "not imminent" and officials have "truly identified the universe of items that are sticking points."
The assessment followed a phone call between President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Greer called the conversation "very constructive," while Modi described it as "productive" and said the leaders reviewed bilateral trade, defense, energy and critical technologies.
But significant disagreements persist. Washington wants India to stop buying Russian oil, which the U.S. administration says funds the Ukraine war. New Delhi prioritizes protecting its agricultural sector and securing tariffs that boost export competitiveness.
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, in the U.S. for trade negotiations and a G20 trade ministers meeting in Milwaukee, was more optimistic. He said discussions with Greer focused on "the early conclusion of a mutually beneficial interim agreement under the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement."
Ronak D. Desai, a visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, captured the gap: "Goyal is counting the issues already resolved, and Greer is counting the ones that remain. The final issues in any trade deal are typically the hardest." Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also publicly acknowledged a negotiation deadlock.
Tension has marked U.S.-India relations for over a year. The U.S. imposed a 25 percent punitive tariff on India in August for its Russian oil purchases, raising total duties on Indian imports to 50 percent. In February, those duties dropped to 18 percent after President Trump claimed India had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases and buy more from the United States and Venezuela.
India disputed that framing, maintaining that energy security alone drives its oil procurement. The ongoing Iran conflict has intensified India's need for supply stability, pushing it to rely more heavily on Russian oil.
While U.S. and Venezuelan supplies have grown since the start of the year, global constraints prevent India from abandoning Moscow's supplies entirely. The impasse leaves India facing the risk of U.S. tariffs as high as 100 percent, which could undermine trade talks where New Delhi seeks tariff concessions for its exports.
