Zcash (ZEC) currently trades at $1,333.50, down 7.29 percent on the day and 21 percent below its late-September peak of $1,698.00. The pullback follows a 253 percent rally from a $480.72 base, a gain-to-correction ratio consistent with historical patterns in the privacy coin's price action.
Recent headwinds include a $30.25 million net outflow from the Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) yesterday, which reduced cumulative net inflows to $268 million. The ETF, launched Aug. 25, also executed a three-for-one share split yesterday morning. A security breach at Bitget exchange on Sept. 24 stole approximately $387 million (revised upward from an initial $351.6 million estimate), attributed by Bitget's CEO to methods consistent with North Korean hacker groups, though formal attribution is pending.
On-chain investigator ZachXBT tracked 2,746 ZEC (approximately $3.9 million) moving from Bitget-linked addresses into Zcash's shielded pool on Wednesday. While this figure represents a fraction of ZEC's market capitalization, it reflects heightened privacy-seeking behavior following the breach. Analysts assess the hack as a sentiment drag rather than a direct price trigger.
Technical indicators reveal structural resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.2, a neutral reading that represents normalization after overbought levels during the rally phase. The Average Directional Index (ADX) registers 52.0, above the 25 threshold that signals trend strength, though ADX lags and primarily reflects the prior vertical move.
More critically, Zcash's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains above its 200-day EMA—the canonical bullish alignment. A sustained trend reversal would require these lines to converge, a scenario that depends on a rapid, protracted price decline. Current technicals do not support that outcome.
The 21 percent correction within a 253 percent rally aligns with Zcash's historical volatility profile. In June, ZEC fell from $635 to an intraday low of $309 following disclosure of a critical vulnerability—a 51 percent intraday drop that preceded subsequent recovery. The present pullback, while notable over five days, falls within expected retracement ranges for assets with ZEC's price trajectory.
Macroeconomic conditions offer mixed signals. Bitcoin briefly spiked to $85,600 on Wednesday after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data but retracted those gains. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29 percent. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike declined from 70 percent to below 50 percent, a shift that historically supports risk-asset valuations.
