NEW DELHI — India's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration, according to government data.
The shift marks a sharp reversal from decades of state-led efforts to suppress population growth. In the 1960s, Indian schools posted slogans urging parents: "Two or three children, enough." The 1970s saw government-orchestrated sterilization campaigns that often targeted the poor and disadvantaged.
New Indian school textbooks, set for reprinting this summer, will instead warn of the risks of too few births rather than too many. The change reflects government alarm that India could age rapidly without achieving the wealth of developed nations—a scenario already unfolding in China, where the population has peaked.
Births in India have dropped by a fifth from their 2001 peak. In Tamil Nadu, an industrialized southern state, 1,200 schools closed last year due to declining enrollment. Many children now grow up without siblings.
Several Indian states already match fertility rates of wealthy European countries. Tamil Nadu and West Bengal each record a rate of 1.3, equivalent to Finland's. Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai, stands at 1.4, matching Norway.
India's population of 1.45 billion is still projected to grow, but at a slower pace. Some state politicians have begun offering cash incentives to encourage larger families.
India's demographic shift reflects a global pattern. More than two-thirds of all countries now fall below replacement-level fertility. Middle-income nations including Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Turkey have been below the rate for years. Even poorer countries are joining the trend: Sri Lanka's rate is 1.3, Tunisia's 1.6, and Morocco has fallen below replacement. The Kenyan capital of Nairobi is approaching that threshold.
Demographers attribute falling rates partly to declining child mortality—parents need fewer children when confident most will reach adulthood. Girls' education plays a primary role, giving women greater autonomy over reproductive decisions and life choices.
India's population surged from 361 million in 1951 to 683 million by 1981, nearly doubling in three decades. That expansion followed the early phase of demographic transition, when mortality fell sharply but fertility remained high. The current contraction presents a new governance challenge as India manages its shifting age structure.
