Social media users frequently identify celebrity actions, corporate decisions and cultural trends as "recession indicators." The trend parodies financial jargon and reflects broad anxiety about a potential economic downturn.
The phenomenon draws on concepts such as the Lipstick Theory and the Hemline Index, which link consumer behavior to economic stress. For instance, the Lipstick Theory holds that lipstick sales increase during downturns as consumers opt for smaller luxury purchases. Leonard Lauder, chairman of Estée Lauder, first suggested this theory after observing rising lipstick sales during the Great Depression and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The Hemline Index, attributed to George Taylor, suggests that skirt lengths correlate with stock market movements. Other similar consumer-based indicators include the Big Mac and nail art indexes.
Historically, data has cited drops in sales of underwear, champagne and hair dye as indicators of economic weakness. These examples provide a basis for the pop culture interpretations.
Recent pop culture events labeled as recession indicators by social media users include Lady Gaga's new music, unsold copies of the novel "Infinite Jest," the new theme song for "The White Lotus" and the trend of disappearing tattoos, notably with Pete Davidson. The return of normcore fashion and bikini-clad models in Super Bowl burger advertisements have also been cited as indicators.
An anonymous user on X quipped, "everything is a recession indicator if you believe in it enough," encapsulating the meme's blend of humor and underlying economic fear. This appropriation of financial language extends to other memes, such as "GDP Fans," which satirize neoliberal mindsets and "finance bro" stereotypes.
The meme's prevalence reflects a persistent fear of economic crises that has influenced recent films like "The Big Short" and "Margin Call." Major macroeconomic events have historically changed pop culture, influencing business models and ushering in eras of austerity and logo-free fashion.
Economic crashes set the stage for the fast fashion boom, with brands like Zara and H&M expanding across Europe. Indie-hipster culture emerged as a survivor from the Indie Sleaze era following the crisis. More recently, the economic response to lockdowns has fueled the growth of Shein and revived interest in thrifting and secondhand shopping, driven by the widening price gap between luxury and vintage goods.
