WASHINGTON — Eleven U.S. House races shifted toward Democrats in the latest Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings, putting more pressure on the Republican Party ahead of midterm elections. The University of Virginia Center for Politics election forecaster updated its projections Tuesday, reflecting a national polling lead for Democrats.
These adjustments follow recent shifts favoring Democrats in the House, potentially allowing the party to reclaim control of the chamber. Democrats need to flip only three seats to secure a majority, a goal they aim to achieve with fewer than 50 days until Election Day.
Virginia saw the most changes, with three Republican incumbents experiencing declining advantages. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) had her race move from a toss-up to “leans Democrat.” Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) saw his district shift from leaning Republican to a toss-up. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) also saw his race adjusted, moving from “leans” to “likely” Republican.
Across the country, Rep. Ryan McKenzie (R-PA) faced a similar shift, with his Pennsylvania district moving from a toss-up to “leans Democrat.” Other districts also moved away from the Republican column.
Reps. Greg Murphy (R-NC) and Mike Carney (R-OH) had their races downgraded from “safe” to “likely” Republican. Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-MO) district, located west of St. Louis, moved from “likely” to “leans” Republican.
Three open races also saw shifts to the left: Montana’s 1st Congressional District, Maine’s 2nd District, and Kentucky’s 6th District. In California, Rep. Derek Tran’s (D-CA) district became more favorable for Democrats, moving from “leans” to “likely” Democrat.
These rating changes present a difficult outlook for Republicans heading into November. President Donald Trump and the Republican Party continue efforts to energize voters, focusing on economic issues and Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every U.S. adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.
Despite Republican campaign efforts, the midterm elections are increasingly favoring Democrats. A recent NBC News poll found Democrats hold a 5-percentage-point lead over Republicans in the midterm elections, with voters preferring Democrats by 50 percent to 45 percent. This lead is 7 percentage points lower than the Democratic advantage observed before the 2018 midterm elections.
