Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49 percent to 44 percent among likely Texas voters, according to a Texas Public Opinion Research survey. Libertarian Ted Brown pulls three percent, with three percent undecided.
The margin is narrow enough that Brown could swing the outcome. Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson said even two to four percent of Brown's vote could tip the race — votes that would likely come from Republicans unwilling to support Paxton.
Brown, a retired insurance adjuster, ran for Senate in 2024 against Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, securing more than 267,000 votes statewide, a record for a Libertarian candidate in a Texas Senate race. Cruz won by nearly one million votes, absorbing Brown's challenge.
This year's contest is considerably tighter, fueled partly by Republican resentment of Paxton stemming from his March primary runoff victory over incumbent John Cornyn. Brown believes he can match or exceed his 2024 total, saying Republicans who opposed Paxton in the primary are not rallying behind him now. "Some of these voters are considering Talarico or opting out of the Senate race entirely," Brown said.
Brown sees an opening among voters "who cannot bring themselves to vote for the opposing party." He frames his platform around limited government, personal and economic freedom, and non-interventionist foreign policy. He said many fiscal conservatives are searching for a candidate committed to reducing federal government spending.
Brown rejects accusations that he is a spoiler. "You can't spoil something that's rotten and putrid to begin with," he said, referring to the Republican primary. He noted that Republicans have long claimed Libertarians siphon their votes.
Brown previously chaired the Libertarian Party of California and now serves as vice chair for the Libertarian Party of Travis County, which covers the Austin area.
Paxton faces difficulty uniting the Republican base. The primary runoff bitterness has made it hard to bring reluctant voters back for November. With six percent of likely voters either supporting Brown or undecided, the final weeks will determine whether they shift to one of the major party candidates or cast ballots for the Libertarian.
