Bitcoin has not yet found a durable floor, according to veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin, author of Bitcoin Supercycle. He argues the market still has room to weaken before capitulation is complete, with BTC potentially revisiting the $39,000 to $55,000 zone.
Terpin ties market stress to Bitcoin's four-year halving rhythm. He identified early October 2026 as the likely window for the final "pain zone," when the most impatient sellers are forced out of positions.
His analysis points to a specific arithmetic path for the decline. A drop of approximately 66 percent from Bitcoin's October 2025 all-time high of $126,100 would place the price near $43,500. This aligns with his book's initial projection for a 60 percent to 70 percent drop.
Terpin emphasized that a true bottom does not "pop back" quickly after hitting its low. He noted that traders often mistake sharp rebounds for the end of a cycle, especially during periods when selling pressure has not fully exhausted.
He rejected the argument that institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds have permanently changed Bitcoin's boom-and-bust pattern. "Institutions absolutely sell," Terpin said, characterizing ETFs and institutional participation as modifications to liquidity channels rather than a removal of selling incentives during downturns.
On-chain data shows original holders and large individual wallets—often termed whales—collectively hold approximately five times the amount of Bitcoin compared to institutions. This concentration of supply in long-term hands means whale selling can still exert significant downward pressure.
Terpin's framework relies on the law of diminishing returns. As Bitcoin's market capitalization matured, each successive cycle's peak-to-trough decline has been proportionally smaller than the one before it. His updated target range of $39,000 to $55,000 for the ultimate low is broader but consistent with his earlier $40,000-$50,000 remarks.
He pointed to the behavior of mis-timed traders in prior cycles, specifically referencing the post-November 2021 period when Bitcoin reached roughly $69,000. During that time, expectations and momentum led many participants to maintain exposure longer than advised, even as macro conditions remained challenging.
