Ohio's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are statistically tied, according to a new Bowling Green State University poll of 1,000 likely voters. Yet most Ohioans expect Republicans to win anyway—a striking mismatch between current numbers and voter sentiment.
In the governor's race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Ramaswamy 48 percent to 45 percent, a three-point advantage within the poll's margin of error. But 62 percent of voters expect Ramaswamy to win, while only 36 percent expect Acton to prevail. Acton's favorability rating stands at 41 percent, with 42 percent viewing her unfavorably. Ramaswamy's numbers are worse: 36 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable.
Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a similar three-point lead in the Senate race, 48 percent to 45 percent over Republican Jon Husted. Yet 53 percent of voters expect Husted to win, compared with 45 percent who predict a Brown victory. Brown's favorability is nearly split: 42 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable. Husted trails, with 35 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable.
On broader ballot preference, 48 percent of Ohioans said they would support a Democrat in their House district, while 47 percent would back a Republican.
Majorities of voters expressed deep dissatisfaction with the status quo. Sixty-one percent believe the nation is on the wrong track, compared with 31 percent who say it is headed in the right direction. Ohio's numbers are slightly better but still negative: 52 percent say the state is off track, 31 percent say it is headed the right way.
President Donald Trump's approval rating among Ohio voters stands at 40 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. The economy and inflation are the top concerns for voters, ranking well ahead of other issues. Abortion was cited by 6 percent of voters as a top issue, artificial intelligence by 7 percent, guns by 4 percent and higher education by 2 percent.
Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at BGSU, attributed the gap between the polls and voter expectations to skepticism about Democratic prospects in the state. "This suggests that many Ohioans view the state as more favorable for Republicans, even though the current political environment has made it much more difficult for Republican candidates," Alexander said.
