Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a close Trump ally and potential 2028 presidential contender, has largely avoided the campaign trail for Republican midterm candidates—a notable absence as the GOP faces a sharp erosion of Latino support it won in 2024.
Rubio is not expected to attend this week's Republican National Committee midterm convention. His absence comes as new polling signals a significant shift among Latino voters away from both Trump and the Republican Party.
President Trump won 46 percent of Latino votes in the 2024 general election, a modern Republican high-water mark that GOP strategists attributed to Trump's focus on economic issues, particularly inflation.
But the coalition is fracturing. A spring poll by UnidosUS found that 67 percent of Latino voters in Texas disapproved of Trump's job performance, including 20 percent who voted for him in 2024. Equis Research polling showed 10 percent of Texas Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 say they would not vote for a Republican congressional candidate in 2026. A Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll released Tuesday found Democrats holding a 23-point lead over Republicans among Latino voters across 17 battleground House districts.
Latino voters, who make up 15 percent of the national electorate and are the second-largest voting-age population, could determine control of the House. The Cook Political Report identifies 37 competitive House districts, 12 of which are at least 20 percent Hispanic. Three of those seats are toss-ups held by Republican incumbents: Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, and David Valadao of California. All three represent districts with significant Hispanic populations that Trump carried in 2024.
Rubio, a Florida Republican, remains one of the GOP's most recognizable Latino figures. His limited campaign presence is particularly striking given the stakes.
Adam Goodman, a veteran Republican strategist based in Florida, said Rubio is the GOP's "secret weapon" for engaging Hispanic voters. "Marco is arguably the most ready to serve, meaning take a national message on behalf of the president, and somewhere downstream perhaps on behalf of himself, that people will rally around," Goodman said. "He's incredibly articulate. It's one thing to have a message—it's another to be able to deliver it powerfully. He's one of the best. He's always well-reasoned. He's always compelling. His experience is the reinforcement of credibility when he goes out on the trail."
Goodman acknowledged that economic uncertainty is pushing Latino voters away from Trump's coalition.
