SANA'A
Yemen's four-year truce has ended, with open conflict resuming between Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized government, supported by Saudi Arabia. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared on July 30 that his forces would "respond to their full-scale escalation with one of our own," after accusing the government and its Saudi allies of planning a major offensive.
Throughout August, Houthi forces launched drone and missile attacks against government positions, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers and civilians. The Yemeni army responded with its own strikes against the rebels.
Since mid-July, the Houthis have also targeted Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea and attacked ports, airports and refineries. Data provider Kpler reported that hardly any Saudi tankers sailed through the Bab al-Mandab strait, located at the Red Sea's southern tip, during August.
The Houthis pursue two main objectives. First, they aim to pressure Saudi Arabia into paying Yemeni civil servants and lifting restrictions on flights and shipping. Second, they seek to seize the initiative before any Saudi-led offensive and advance territorial control.
On August 15, Houthi missiles struck the port of Mokha, near the Bab al-Mandab strait, causing an estimated $16 million in damage and forcing its closure. The attack targeted the National Resistance Forces, an elite group of government-backed fighters using Mokha as a base. Driving these forces from the city would expand Houthi control over shipping through the vital strait.
The Houthis also seek control of Yemen's oilfields. In early 2022, they attempted to capture oil wells in Marib, east of the capital Sana'a. That offensive was repelled by the Giant Brigades, a government-aligned militia trained by the United Arab Emirates.
Later in 2022, Houthi forces bombed coastal oil terminals to prevent adversaries from exporting fuel. The government announced in July its intention to resume oil shipments. Since that announcement, the Houthis have heavily struck Marib, and their mobilized fighters in the region could launch another push for its resources. Even without capturing the wells, the Houthis may seek to force the government into sharing oil revenues.
In response, the government has voiced its commitment to renewed conflict. Vice-President Abdullah al-Alimi declared on August 20 that recapturing Sana'a was "a settled matter." Sana'a, the capital, has been under Houthi control since 2014, along with much of Yemen's northwest and west coast.
Approximately 70 percent of Yemenis live under Houthi rule. Despite their strengthened partnership with Iran during the truce period, the Houthis have a history of independent action. When they swept into Sana'a in 2014, they defied Iranian sponsors, who had urged restraint. The Houthis have existed for decades without Iranian assistance, suggesting capacity to persist even if Iran's political situation were to change.
Defeating the Houthis would be difficult. In 2018, a UAE-backed offensive reached the gates of Al-Hudaydah, the Houthis' primary maritime artery for Iranian smuggling and piracy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres brokered the Stockholm Agreement, citing humanitarian crisis, which halted the offensive. Al-Hudaydah remained under Houthi control, preserving their logistical supply route.
The Saudis later weakened the Southern Forces, which had been the only internal group capable of defeating the Houthis, further bolstering the rebels' position.
