UBS Raises S&P 500 Target to 8,100 on 29% Q2 Earnings Growth

UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100, up from prior guidance. The index closed Friday at 7,674.37, implying 5.6 percent upside from that level.

The firm's bull case rests on three pillars: resilient economic growth, supportive monetary policy, and accelerating AI adoption. UBS lifted 2026 earnings per share estimates to $350 from $335 and 2027 estimates to $400 from $375—a shift that underpins the higher target.

Second-quarter earnings are tracking 29 percent year-over-year growth, with analyst estimate revisions moving at an unusually fast pace. Nvidia and Micron have driven much of this year's record gains. Strength has broadened beyond AI, with cyclical sectors gaining traction as well.

UBS also raised its mid-2027 target to 8,400 from 8,200. Other Wall Street names have turned more bullish too: Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel projects the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 within 12 months.

The index has climbed 12 percent year to date, outpacing last year's full-year gain of 16 percent through the same period. A 24 percent rally in 2024 remains the recent benchmark; hitting that mark would require the index to double current gains.

Retail investor sentiment for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) turned bearish this week, reversing from bullish a week prior. Sentiment for the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) sits neutral.

UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100, up from prior guidance. The index closed Friday at 7,674.37, implying 5.6 percent upside from that level.

UBS also raised its mid-2027 target to 8,400 from 8,200. Other Wall Street names have turned more bullish too: Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel projects the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 within 12 months.

Retail investor sentiment for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) turned bearish this week, reversing from bullish a week prior. Sentiment for the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) sits neutral.