Kazakhstan is holding a parliamentary election on August 23 under a new constitution that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has presented as a democratic overhaul. The vote follows civil unrest in 2022 that killed at least 238 people and prompted calls for political change.
The new constitutional framework, approved by referendum in March and effective July 1, establishes a 145-member, single-chamber legislature called the Kurultai, replacing the previous bicameral parliament.
Despite these structural changes, the political dynamics remain unchanged. The newly formed Justice party, a reconfigured version of the ruling party that has dominated for decades, is projected to secure a substantial majority. Genuine opposition parties have been excluded from the election, ensuring the parliament will function as a rubber-stamp body that allows the president to maintain control over all branches of government.
President Tokayev recently asserted that pluralism is thriving in Kazakhstan. Days earlier, opposition leader Amangeldy Dzhakhin received a seven-year prison sentence on extremism charges, mirroring the fate of his predecessor. Reporters and social media personalities have faced imprisonment, travel bans and prohibitions from practicing journalism, often on unsubstantiated charges. A YouTuber was jailed for a satirical post targeting the president.
Tokayev presented the new constitution as a move to end the "super-presidential form of rule" that characterized Kazakhstan under his long-serving predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who held power for 30 years before resigning in 2019. Tokayev was Nazarbayev's designated successor and initially governed alongside him. The 2022 unrest led to Nazarbayev's marginalization, prompting Tokayev to distance himself from his former patron and roll back some presidential powers that year.
Tokayev subsequently reasserted some presidential authorities within the new constitution. Its adoption came against a backdrop of arrests targeting government critics.
In 2022, Tokayev introduced a single presidential term limit and pledged to respect it. The Constitutional Court recently ruled, however, that he is entitled to a new "first" term—a tactic that effectively resets the clock and provides a mechanism for re-election. The same approach has been used by autocrats across Central Asia, as well as by Vladimir Putin in Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Tokayev's current second term expires in 2029, providing a test of whether he will honor his commitment to ending what he has described as monarchical rule in Kazakhstan.
