Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the New York gubernatorial race, according to a Siena Poll released Wednesday — the Siena Research Institute's first survey of likely voters this cycle. Hochul draws 49 percent support to Blakeman's 39 percent.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said the numbers carry a warning for the incumbent. "Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39 percent, not crossing the magic 50 percent mark," Greenberg said. He pointed out that in August 2022, Hochul led then-challenger Lee Zeldin, a former Republican congressman, by 14 points, 53-39 percent, before winning that race by six points.
Hochul's favorability stands at 46-49 percent among likely voters, and her job approval is 48-49 percent. Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, carries a 33-26 percent favorability rating, with 40 percent of likely voters saying they do not know enough about him to form an opinion.
Both candidates are holding their partisan bases. Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8 percent; Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9 percent. Independent likely voters favor Blakeman by five points, 45-40 percent.
Geographically, Hochul leads in New York City by 64-19 percent. Blakeman leads in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41 percent. The two run nearly even upstate.
Hochul holds large leads among women, Latino voters and Black voters. Blakeman and Hochul are running nearly even among men and white voters.
On key issues, likely voters give Hochul the edge on increasing affordable housing by 16 points, 51-35 percent. She also leads on making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers, 48-41 percent, and on energy policy, 47-42 percent.
Voters are closely divided elsewhere. Hochul leads Blakeman by three points on keeping New Yorkers safe, 47-44 percent, and by one point on handling undocumented immigrants, 45-44 percent.
On character, likely voters see Blakeman as tougher by 25 points and more honest by five points. Hochul edges Blakeman on toughness by two points, but voters do not view her as honest by a two-point margin. Blakeman leads on getting things done by eight points; Hochul trails on that measure by five points.
Both candidates struggle with voters on relatability. Blakeman is underwater by four points on being in touch with average New Yorkers; Hochul is underwater by 12 points on the same question.
In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, leads Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy 54-36 percent. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, also a Democrat, leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 55-32 percent.
