WASHINGTON — Sen. Tim Scott has lowered his stated ceiling for Republican Senate gains in 2026, telling The Post and Courier that holding more than 53 seats is now the baseline expectation — down from an earlier projection of 55. The South Carolina Republican, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, described 55 as a "stretch goal" he still pursues. "You've got to have that goal that you can barely see, and you strive for that, and any place between there and your bottom line is considered real success," Scott said.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats need four seats to reclaim the chamber, a difficult path that still leaves the GOP with structural advantages heading into November 2026. Scott's revised floor of 53 means Republicans are, by his own measure, defending existing ground rather than adding to it.
Scott pointed to candidate recruitment as the reason for his confidence. He cited four specific efforts: encouraging former Sen. John Sununu to consider a run in New Hampshire, urging former Rep. Mike Rogers to run again in Michigan, supporting Michael Whatley in North Carolina and backing retired sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota. "We are batting four for four," Scott said.
On Iowa's open seat, Scott said he pushed President Trump to endorse Rep. Ashley Hinson quickly after Sen. Joni Ernst announced she would not seek reelection. "I called and asked him to do so. He said he would do so. The same day we talked, he endorsed her," Scott said. Scott said he speaks with Trump "as often as necessary" about the political map, including where to push and where to defend.
The Republicans defending vulnerable seats face a tighter environment than the 2024 cycle. Twenty of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024, giving incumbents a structural cushion. The two exceptions — Maine and North Carolina — are widely viewed as among the most competitive races on the map. Texas adds further complication, where a Trump-backed primary contest has roiled the field.
Jessica Taylor, the chief Senate analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, said the political terrain has shifted in ways that complicate Republican expansion. "I think it's going to be very difficult for them to expand the map," Taylor said. "Given the environment — which has the potential to get worse — it's put them back on their" defensive footing, she said.
Trump's national approval rating stands at roughly 42 percent, according to RealClearPolitics averages of multiple surveys — down from approximately 48 percent at the start of his second term. His standing among Republicans remains firm: an Economist/YouGov poll released March 17 found 84 percent of Republicans approved of the president's job performance. Taylor said slippage among Latino voters and white working-class voters is the more pressing concern for the party's ability to compete in swing states.
The economic backdrop adds pressure. Rising gas prices, tariffs weighing on household budgets and the ongoing conflict in Iran have all registered in polling as issues where more voters blame Trump directly. Historically, the party holding the White House loses seats in midterm elections — a pattern Republicans must work against in 2026.
Scott's first major test as NRSC chairman arrived with the early primaries held in recent weeks, with more contests still ahead. This week's primary calendar includes the Wisconsin governor's race, the Minnesota Senate contest and the South Carolina Senate primary — all markers for the party's recruiting and turnout machinery heading into the fall cycle.
The Senate is leaving for recess with Trump's top legislative priority stalled, a messy close to the session that gives Democrats a ready argument about Republican governance. Scott did not publicly address the legislative impasse in his remarks to The Post and Courier, keeping his focus on candidate recruitment and the electoral map.
The NRSC's task heading into the fall is to hold the seats it has while targeting a small number of competitive Democratic-held seats. Scott's revised projection reflects the narrowing window: Republicans need to run near-perfect recruitment, survive two high-profile competitive seats of their own and overcome a headwind from a president whose approval among the broader electorate has dropped six points since January 2025.
