Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gained seven percentage points since February in the University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll, released Wednesday, putting her at 22 percent among likely Democratic primary voters—one point ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21 percent. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly placed third at 9 percent, California Gov. Gavin Newsom fourth at 8 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 6 percent and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 5 percent. Both Harris and Newsom lost ground since February's survey.
Ocasio-Cortez did not rule out a 2028 White House bid when asked directly. "I have genuinely not really weighed seriously anything past the midterm elections," she said. "I think that I'm taking in this information just like anybody else." On the poll itself, she deflected: "You're gonna have to ask a voter about that. I have less insight into it than they do."
In a separate interview, she called the result humbling but kept her stated focus narrow. "I am, of course, I think, very deeply humbled and grateful to folks who participate and convey that confidence," she said. Her public position remained fixed on the 2026 midterms. "My main focus is really genuinely just the midterms right now, and we have to make sure that we win this majority."
The two paths in front of her are distinct. A presidential run would put her in a national primary field that, at this stage, is still forming. A Senate run would mean challenging Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in New York in 2028, a race that several Democrats say is the more likely option. Schumer, first elected in 1998, has never faced a serious primary. Some Democratic strategists consider a Schumer primary race a higher-probability bet given Ocasio-Cortez's existing New York base and the structural difficulty of a first-time presidential run.
Ocasio-Cortez, 35, represents New York's 14th Congressional District covering parts of the Bronx and Queens. She won her seat in 2018 by defeating then-House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley in a primary that drew national attention. Sanders, whose New Hampshire wins in 2016 and 2020 helped shape the progressive lane Ocasio-Cortez now occupies, polled at 6 percent in the same survey—reflecting a generational shift in where left-wing Democratic energy is concentrated.
Her endorsement activity in the 2026 cycle has been aggressive. She campaigned with Abdul El-Sayed, running for the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan's open seat race. She endorsed left-wing candidate Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, one of the bluest in the country. She also backed Randy Villegas in California's 22nd District, a successful primary run against a seat held by Republican Rep. David Valadao. The pattern—deep-blue districts and competitive swing races both—gives her a broader geographic record than a purely safe-seat incumbent would carry into a national race.
The Democratic Socialists of America has endorsed Ocasio-Cortez in past campaigns and is expected to back her again in 2028. Internal divisions within the organization center on timing: some members want to announce a presidential endorsement before the group's biennial national convention, scheduled for summer 2027, arguing that an earlier commitment would carry more weight in an early-state contest.
New Hampshire's role in 2028 carries an asterisk. After President Joe Biden's 2020 primary win was driven heavily by Black voters in South Carolina, the Democratic National Committee moved South Carolina to the front of the primary calendar for 2024, demoting New Hampshire. South Carolina and Nevada are now competing for the right to hold the first binding contest. New Hampshire's poll still draws attention as a pulse-check on candidate strength, particularly in a state where Sanders ran well, but it no longer holds the institutional leverage it once did.
For Buttigieg, the 21 percent showing positions him as the centrist alternative in a field that does not yet exist on pa. Harris, despite being the 2024 Democratic nominee, sits at 5 percent—a number that reflects the difficulty of mounting another national campaign after a general election loss. Newsom at 8 percent trails both Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg by double digits.
On the Republican side, the same polling environment shows Vice President JD Vance leading the 2028 GOP field at 36 percent among likely Republican primary voters. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who ran for president roughly a decade ago before dropping out following a difficult debate performance against then-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, sits at 26 percent. Vance's lead reflects his positioning as the incumbent vice president and the institutional advantage that carries in a party that has not lost a presidential election in the cycle.
Ocasio-Cortez told the audience at a University of Chicago event that her ambition extends beyond any single office, declining to close off either option. Whether she runs for president or challenges Schumer, the decision will follow the midterm results—and the endorsements and travel she is accumulating now are setting the groundwork either way.
