The CLARITY Act, a key piece of U.S. digital asset market structure legislation, faces long odds in Congress. Haider Rafique, OKX's global managing partner for corporate affairs and investor relations, is not optimistic the bill passes this year.
Rafique pins the stalled progress on political dynamics, not substantive policy disputes. Democrats, he said, have little incentive to hand Republicans a legislative win before the midterms—especially with President Donald Trump's ties to the crypto industry in plain sight.
"I don't believe there is enough Democratic support for it to pass," Rafique said. He questioned why Democrats would back a highly polarizing piece of legislation before the midterms.
The CLARITY Act would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, defining which assets fall under the SEC as securities and which are commodities under the CFTC. Supporters argue it would drive institutional participation in U.S. crypto markets.
The Senate announced it will not vote on the bill this month, further cutting its immediate prospects. Industry leaders now look to September, when the Senate reconvenes in Washington, D.C. as the next potential window.
Rafique acknowledged that bipartisan support for the legislation exists. But he believes party politics will outweigh the industry's push for regulatory clarity. He also dismissed Democratic concerns over ethics provisions as inconsistent, arguing lawmakers should instead adopt broader restrictions on public officials' participation in financial markets.
Rafique said clear federal rules are essential to keep entrepreneurs, investment and intellectual property from moving overseas.
Companies like Hyperliquid, a Layer 1 blockchain for perpetual futures, and Backpack, an exchange, have chosen jurisdictions outside the United States. "Without clarity, entrepreneurs will continue to stay offshore," Rafique said.
OKX, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, resumed its U.S. expansion in 2025 after resolving a case with the U.S. Department of Justice. The exchange offers spot, derivatives and Web3 services globally.
Rafique said much of the potential benefit from the CLARITY Act is already priced into the market. Bitcoin's recent rebound—currently trading at $64,933—was partly driven by optimism surrounding the bill. He estimates passage would produce a short-term rally of around 3 percent to 4 percent.
A failure to pass the legislation could trigger a sharper decline. Rafique sees Bitcoin potentially falling toward the $55,000 level before attracting retail buying interest. "The market prices news ahead of time," he said, adding that "most of the appreciation from Clarity is already reflected in current prices."
Separately, OKX is advancing its joint venture with Intercontinental Exchange. Rafique described the partnership as a key step in OKX's long-term U.S. strategy, initially focusing on distributing ICE market data and products to OKX's roughly 150 million customers globally. The companies are also working with ICE's futures teams to introduce additional products.
