Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. raised its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to a range of $4.15 to $4.70 per share, up from a prior range of $3.60 to $4.25, as the crop trader said clarity on U.S. biofuels policy provides a stable regulatory framework for its operations.
The revised midpoint of $4.43 represents a 9.4 percent increase over the prior guidance midpoint of $3.93, a material re-rating driven by two converging forces: federal mandate certainty and margin recovery in oilseed crushing.
Renewable fuel mandates guarantee a consumption floor for corn-based ethanol and soybean-derived biodiesel, directly supporting crush margins for ADM's largest processing segment. The company said strong soybean and corn export markets contributed to the improved outlook alongside domestic policy stability.
ADM's oilseed processing segment—which extracts oils and protein meals from crushed soybeans for food, feed and industrial applications—is the primary earnings driver behind the revision. Sustained export demand from key buyers adds a second demand channel beyond domestic biofuel consumption.
The updated forecast also reflects quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst estimates, suggesting operational execution is holding even as the company works through geopolitical commodity risks. ADM said biofuels policy clarity would help offset disruptions tied to Middle East conflict and Iran-related tensions.
Shares rose Tuesday following the announcement.
