What it is
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is released four times a year, alongside specific Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. It compiles individual projections from each FOMC participant, including Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents, for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, unemployment rate, and inflation (both PCE and core PCE). It also includes the famous "dot plot," which illustrates each participant's anonymous projection for the appropriate federal funds rate target at various future points.
The SEP is a critical tool for the Federal Reserve's forward guidance, offering insight into the collective thinking of policymakers. Markets scrutinize the SEP for changes in the median projections for growth, inflation, and especially the dot plot, to anticipate future interest rate paths. Significant shifts in these projections can trigger market reactions in bond yields, stock prices, and the dollar. News coverage often focuses on how the "dots" have moved, signaling a more hawkish or dovish stance.
Why it matters
The SEP, particularly the dot plot, provides a direct look into the Fed's future policy intentions, helping you anticipate potential interest rate changes and market shifts.
Reviewed under editorial standardsUpdated September 26, 2026Not investment advice