What it is
The dot plot is a visual representation included in the Federal Reserve's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). It displays each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participant's anonymous projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end of the current year, the next few calendar years, and over the longer run. Each "dot" on the chart represents one participant's forecast, offering insight into their individual policy outlook.
Investors closely scrutinize the dot plot for signals about the future path of monetary policy and the FOMC's consensus view on interest rates. A shift in the median dot, or a clustering of dots higher or lower, can indicate a more hawkish or dovish stance, respectively. This can influence market expectations for rate hikes or cuts, impacting bond yields, equity valuations, and the dollar's strength, providing crucial context for the FOMC's official statements.
Why it matters
The dot plot offers a glimpse into the Fed's future interest rate plans, helping you anticipate market movements and adjust your investment strategies.
Reviewed under editorial standardsUpdated September 26, 2026Not investment advice